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How do we model continuous data using probability density functions and the normal distribution?

Use probability density functions to find probabilities, mean and variance for continuous random variables, and apply the normal distribution with standardisation

WACE Year 12 Mathematics Methods Unit 4 continuous random variables: probability density functions, mean and variance by integration, the normal distribution, standardisation with z-scores and the 68-95-99.7 rule, with worked SCSA-style examples.

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  1. What this dot point is asking
  2. Probability density functions
  3. The normal distribution
  4. Why standardisation works
  5. Standardisation and z-scores

What this dot point is asking

SCSA Unit 4 moves from the discrete distributions of Unit 3 to continuous random variables, where outcomes form an interval rather than a list. Probabilities become areas under a probability density function (pdf), and the normal distribution is the central continuous model examined in the WACE written examination.

Probability density functions

For a continuous variable, the probability of any single value is 0, so P(X=a)=0P(X = a) = 0. Probabilities are areas:

P(aXb)=abf(x)dx.P(a \le X \le b) = \int_a^b f(x)\,dx.

Because single points have probability 0, P(aXb)=P(a<X<b)P(a \le X \le b) = P(a < X < b).

The mean (expected value) and variance are found by integration:

μ=E(X)=xf(x)dx,Var(X)=(xμ)2f(x)dx=E(X2)μ2.\mu = E(X) = \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} x\,f(x)\,dx, \qquad \mathrm{Var}(X) = \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} (x - \mu)^2 f(x)\,dx = E(X^2) - \mu^2.

The normal distribution

The normal distribution XN(μ,σ2)X \sim N(\mu, \sigma^2) has a symmetric bell-shaped pdf centred at the mean μ\mu with standard deviation σ\sigma. Its key features:

  • It is symmetric about x=μx = \mu, so P(X<μ)=P(X>μ)=0.5P(X < \mu) = P(X > \mu) = 0.5.
  • The total area under the curve is 1.
  • Larger σ\sigma gives a wider, flatter curve.

Why standardisation works

Every normal distribution has the same shape; only its centre and width differ. Subtracting the mean shifts the centre to 00, and dividing by the standard deviation rescales the width to 11, producing the single standard normal ZN(0,1)Z\sim N(0,1). Because this transformation preserves areas, a probability for any normal variable equals the matching probability for ZZ, which is why one set of standard-normal values (or one calculator function) serves every normal model. This is the practical payoff of the symmetry and two-parameter structure described above.

Standardisation and z-scores

To compare values from different normal distributions, or to use tables and the calculator, convert to the standard normal ZN(0,1)Z \sim N(0, 1):

z=xμσ.z = \frac{x - \mu}{\sigma}.

The zz-score is the number of standard deviations a value lies above (positive) or below (negative) the mean.

Exam-style practice questions

Practice questions written in the style of SCSA exam questions on this dot point, with worked answer explainers. The year tag is the paper they imitate, not the source.

WACE 20217 marksCalculator-assumed. The volume of soft drink in a can is normally distributed with mean μ=375\mu=375 mL and standard deviation σ=4\sigma=4 mL. (a) Find P(X<370)P(X<370). (b) Find P(372X378)P(372\le X\le 378). (c) Cans below a certain volume are rejected; the bottom 2%2\% are rejected. Find the rejection volume.
Show worked answer →

A normal-distribution question with an inverse part.

(a) z=3703754=1.25z=\dfrac{370-375}{4}=-1.25. P(X<370)=P(Z<1.25)0.106P(X<370)=P(Z<-1.25)\approx 0.106.

(b) z1=3723754=0.75z_1=\dfrac{372-375}{4}=-0.75, z2=3783754=0.75z_2=\dfrac{378-375}{4}=0.75. P(0.75Z0.75)0.547P(-0.75\le Z\le 0.75)\approx 0.547.

(c) Bottom 2%2\%: P(Z<z)=0.02P(Z<z)=0.02, so z2.054z\approx -2.054. Then x=μ+zσ=3752.054(4)366.8x=\mu+z\sigma=375-2.054(4)\approx 366.8 mL.

Markers reward standardising, the calculator probabilities, and unstandardising with a negative zz in (c).

WACE 20236 marksCalculator-assumed. A continuous random variable has pdf f(x)=34(1x2)f(x)=\dfrac{3}{4}(1-x^{2}) for 1x1-1\le x\le 1. (a) Verify the total area is 11. (b) Find P(0X0.5)P(0\le X\le 0.5). (c) State the mean, justifying by symmetry.
Show worked answer →

A pdf question combining integration and symmetry.

(a) 1134(1x2)dx=34[xx33]11=34(23+23)=3443=1\displaystyle\int_{-1}^{1}\dfrac{3}{4}(1-x^{2})\,dx=\dfrac{3}{4}\left[x-\dfrac{x^{3}}{3}\right]_{-1}^{1}=\dfrac{3}{4}\left(\dfrac{2}{3}+\dfrac{2}{3}\right)=\dfrac{3}{4}\cdot\dfrac{4}{3}=1.

(b) 00.534(1x2)dx=34[xx33]00.5=34(0.50.1253)0.344\displaystyle\int_{0}^{0.5}\dfrac{3}{4}(1-x^{2})\,dx=\dfrac{3}{4}\left[x-\dfrac{x^{3}}{3}\right]_{0}^{0.5}=\dfrac{3}{4}\left(0.5-\dfrac{0.125}{3}\right)\approx 0.344.

(c) The pdf is even (symmetric about x=0x=0), so the mean is E(X)=0E(X)=0.

Markers reward the area check, the definite integral, and a symmetry justification for the mean.

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