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WASpecialist MathematicsSyllabus dot point

How do we turn one sample mean into an interval estimate for the population mean, and what does the confidence level mean?

Construct and interpret confidence intervals for a population mean and find the required sample size

WACE Specialist Unit 4 confidence intervals: the interval sample mean plus or minus z times the standard error, the critical z-values, the correct repeated-sampling interpretation, the margin of error, and solving for the required sample size, with a worked example.

Generated by Claude Opus 4.77 min answer

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  1. What this dot point is asking
  2. The interval
  3. Interpreting the confidence level
  4. Confidence versus precision
  5. Finding the required sample size

What this dot point is asking

SCSA wants you to build the interval from a sample, choose the right critical value, interpret the level correctly, and rearrange to find the sample size needed for a target margin of error.

The interval

where zz is the standard-normal critical value for the chosen level: z1.645z \approx 1.645 for 90%90\%, z1.96z \approx 1.96 for 95%95\%, and z2.576z \approx 2.576 for 99%99\%. The half-width zσnz\tfrac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} is the margin of error EE.

Interpreting the confidence level

Confidence versus precision

A higher confidence level uses a larger zz, widening the interval: more confidence costs precision. A larger sample reduces the standard error, narrowing the interval. The two competing effects are both visible in the margin of error zσnz\tfrac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}.

Finding the required sample size

Set the margin of error to the target EE and solve for nn:

E=zσn    n=(zσE)2.E = z\,\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} \;\Longrightarrow\; n = \left(\frac{z\sigma}{E}\right)^2.

Round nn up to the next whole number, since a fractional sample is not possible and rounding down would exceed the target margin.