How do we turn one sample mean into an interval estimate for the population mean, and what does the confidence level mean?
Construct and interpret confidence intervals for a population mean and find the required sample size
WACE Specialist Unit 4 confidence intervals: the interval sample mean plus or minus z times the standard error, the critical z-values, the correct repeated-sampling interpretation, the margin of error, and solving for the required sample size, with a worked example.
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What this dot point is asking
SCSA wants you to build the interval from a sample, choose the right critical value, interpret the level correctly, and rearrange to find the sample size needed for a target margin of error.
The interval
where is the standard-normal critical value for the chosen level: for , for , and for . The half-width is the margin of error .
Interpreting the confidence level
Confidence versus precision
A higher confidence level uses a larger , widening the interval: more confidence costs precision. A larger sample reduces the standard error, narrowing the interval. The two competing effects are both visible in the margin of error .
Finding the required sample size
Set the margin of error to the target and solve for :
Round up to the next whole number, since a fractional sample is not possible and rounding down would exceed the target margin.