Implications of global trends for health and human development for VCE Health and Human Development Unit 4 AoS 1
“Implications for health and human development of global trends including climate change (rising sea levels, changing weather patterns and increasing number of extreme weather events), conflict, mass migration, increased world trade (global distribution and marketing of tobacco products, e-cigarette products and processed foods), tourism and digital technologies”
The study design lists six global trends, and all of them must be taught (VCAA FAQ): climate change (rising sea levels, changing weather patterns, more extreme weather events), conflict, mass migration, increased world trade (global distribution and marketing of tobacco, e-cigarettes and processed foods), tourism and digital technologies. For each, you need to analyse the implications for health and human development, positive and negative. The VCAA's standard for a strong implication has three parts: say whether a specific measure of health status increases or decreases (for example life expectancy or burden of disease), name the specific aspect of a dimension of health and wellbeing affected (for example immune function for physical health and wellbeing), and make a meaningful link to a human development concept (for example reaching full potential). Current scale: 118 million people forcibly displaced by conflict (UN, 2026), 3.6 billion people living in areas highly susceptible to climate change (WHO), 1.2 billion tobacco users, 80 per cent in low- and middle-income countries (WHO, 2026), and 2.2 billion people still offline (ITU, 2025).
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What this dot point is asking
Globalisation is the increasing connection of the world's economies, cultures and populations through trade, travel, migration, communication and technology. The trends on this page are the ways globalisation, and the pressures that come with it, affect health.
The VCAA FAQ is explicit about the level of knowledge: "students need a basic understanding of climate change, including the aspects listed in the study design ... More importantly, students should be able to analyse the implications ... The same approach applies for the other global trends."
When analysing implications for health outcomes and human development, clearly and specifically detail the impact:
- Health status: whether a specific measure increases or decreases (life expectancy, burden of disease, morbidity, mortality).
- Dimension of health and wellbeing: the specific aspect affected (for example decreased immune system function for physical health and wellbeing).
- Human development: a clear link to a human development concept (for example an increased ability to reach one's full potential if global peace and security are enhanced).
"Globally" or "in a global context" means you must refer to the impact on many people worldwide, not just one individual.
Climate change
What you need to know. Climate change is the long-term shift in temperatures and weather patterns, driven mainly by greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels. In 2025, global temperatures reached 1.43°C above pre-industrial levels and greenhouse gas emissions hit a record high (UN, SDG Report 2026). The study design names three aspects:
| Aspect | Health implications | Human development implications |
|---|---|---|
| Rising sea levels | Saltwater contaminates freshwater and farmland, reducing safe water and food; storm surges and coastal flooding cause injury and drowning; loss of land and homes causes stress and anxiety | Communities on low-lying islands (Kiribati, Tuvalu) and deltas may lose homes, livelihoods and culture, and may have to relocate, reducing choices and a decent standard of living |
| Changing weather patterns | Droughts and unreliable rainfall reduce crop yields, increasing food insecurity and undernutrition (stunting); warmer, wetter conditions extend the range of mosquitoes, increasing malaria and dengue morbidity | Farmers lose income; children may leave school to work; food price rises push families into poverty |
| More extreme weather events | Heatwaves increase heat stress and deaths among older people and outdoor workers; floods spread water-borne disease such as cholera and damage health facilities; bushfires cause burns and respiratory disease | Destroyed schools, roads and clinics interrupt education and health care; recovery costs divert government spending |
The data.
- 3.6 billion people already live in areas highly susceptible to climate change (WHO).
- Between 2030 and 2050, climate change is expected to cause about 250,000 additional deaths a year from undernutrition, malaria, diarrhoea and heat stress alone (WHO).
- Areas with weak health infrastructure, mostly in low- and middle-income countries, will be the least able to cope without help to prepare and respond (WHO). This is why climate change widens health inequalities between countries, even though high-income countries emit far more greenhouse gases per person.
Case studies from VCAA exams. The 2024 exam used Pakistan: floods in 2022 submerged a third of the country, and a World Bank report found about 40 per cent of children under five had stunted growth, with higher rates in flood-affected areas. The 2023 exam described Kiribati, where storm surge and high tides threaten South Tarawa, home to around 51 per cent of the population, and Australia funded schools with raised floors and optional protective seawalls.
- Implication
- More frequent floods in low-income countries contaminate drinking water with faecal bacteria.
- Health status
- This increases morbidity and mortality from diarrhoeal disease and cholera, particularly under-5 mortality.
- Dimension
- Repeated gut infections reduce the absorption of nutrients and weaken immune function, reducing physical health and wellbeing.
- Human development
- Sick children miss school, reducing their access to knowledge and their ability to reach their full potential.
Conflict
Conflict includes war between countries, civil war, armed violence and political instability. The UN reports that violent conflict has surged to its highest level in decades, forcibly displacing 118 million people and "erasing years of development in months" (SDG Report 2026).
Implications for health:
- Direct: deaths and injuries (increased mortality and YLL), disability (increased YLD), sexual violence, and trauma such as post-traumatic stress (mental health and wellbeing).
- Indirect: health facilities are damaged and health workers flee; immunisation programs stop, allowing outbreaks of measles and cholera; supply chains for food and medicines break down, increasing undernutrition; water and sanitation systems are destroyed. In fragile and conflict-affected settings, safely managed drinking water coverage is 38 percentage points lower and safely managed sanitation 33 points lower than elsewhere (WHO/UNICEF JMP, 2025).
Implications for human development: schools close or are destroyed, reducing access to knowledge; jobs and markets collapse, reducing income and a decent standard of living; people lose the freedom to participate in decisions and in community life. The 2023 VCAA stimulus described how a ban on women working for international NGOs in Afghanistan stopped Save the Children from reaching women and children with health services.
Positive side. When conflict ends, peace allows reconstruction of health systems and schools, and the VCAA FAQ's own example of a human development link is "an increased ability to reach one's full potential if global peace and security are enhanced".
Mass migration
Mass migration is the movement of large numbers of people from one place to another, within a country (internal displacement) or across borders (refugees, asylum seekers and other migrants). Causes accepted in the 2025 examiners' report include conflict, war, persecution, violation of human rights, climate change and rising sea levels, natural disasters, poverty, civil unrest and famine.
Implications for those migrating (health outcomes):
| During the journey and in camps | On arrival in a new country |
|---|---|
| Overcrowding spreads infectious disease (influenza, measles, cholera), increasing morbidity | Language barriers and unfamiliar systems reduce access to health care, delaying diagnosis and treatment |
| Food insecurity and unsafe water cause undernutrition and diarrhoeal disease | Racism and discrimination increase stress and reduce sense of belonging |
| Violence, including against women and girls, causes injury and trauma | Insecure or temporary housing and lack of income limit access to nutritious food |
| Interrupted treatment for chronic conditions (such as diabetes or HIV) | Exploitation in work without legal status |
| Fear for safety, grief and loss of identity reduce mental and spiritual health and wellbeing | For some, a greater sense of safety, reducing fear and anxiety, and access to better services |
Implications for host communities. Pressure on water, sanitation, housing and health services in receiving areas (many refugees are hosted in neighbouring low- and middle-income countries), but also new workers, skills and cultural diversity.
The 2025 report said some students discussed "the impacts of the causes of mass migration, such as war, which did not address the question". If the question is about migrating, the implications must come from the move itself (the journey, the camp, the new country), not from the bombing that caused it.
Increased world trade
The 2025 study design narrows this trend to the global distribution and marketing of tobacco products, e-cigarette products and processed foods. Trade also has positive implications, and a balanced answer can mention them.
- Tobacco
- Tobacco kills more than 7 million people a year, including over 1.6 million non-smokers exposed to second-hand smoke. Around 80 per cent of the world's 1.2 billion tobacco users live in low- and middle-income countries (WHO, June 2026). Tobacco companies expand into these markets because profits have fallen in high-income countries, regulation and taxes are weaker, and incomes are rising (2022 examiners' report). Tobacco advertising, promotion and sponsorship "increases and sustains tobacco use by effectively recruiting new tobacco users and discouraging tobacco users from quitting"; only 68 countries have completely banned all forms of it (WHO). The WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, adopted in 2003, now has 182 countries and the European Union as Parties.
- E-cigarettes
- The WHO states that e-cigarettes "are harmful to health and are not safe" and calls for "strong decisive action ... to prevent the uptake of e-cigarettes based on the growing body of evidence of use by children and adolescents and health harms" (WHO tobacco and nicotine fact sheet, 2026). The WHO is concerned that these products have been "aggressively marketed to young people": they target children "through social media and influencers, with at least 16 000 attractive flavours", some use cartoon characters or look like toys, and use among children and young people exceeds adult use in many countries. 88 countries have no minimum age at which e-cigarettes can be bought, and 74 have no regulations for them at all (WHO questions and answers on e-cigarettes). Nicotine is highly addictive and harmful, particularly for children, adolescents and young adults whose brains are still developing.
- Processed foods
- Global food and beverage companies distribute and market energy-dense, nutrient-poor foods and sugary drinks worldwide. The WHO links the global spread of obesity to "shifts in diet, physical activity, and societal and individual behavior driven by globalization and industrialized food systems". In 2022, 1 in 8 people in the world were living with obesity, 2.5 billion adults were overweight, and in 2024 35 million children under 5 were overweight (WHO, December 2025). Many middle-income countries now face a double burden: undernutrition in some households and obesity in others.
- Implications
- higher rates of lung cancer, cardiovascular disease, COPD, type 2 diabetes and some cancers, increasing mortality, YLL and YLD (burden of disease); households spend scarce income on tobacco rather than food and schooling; health systems in low- and middle-income countries face rising treatment costs; and premature death and disability reduce productive, creative lives.
Positive implications of trade (for balance): access to medicines, vaccines and medical technology; jobs and income in export industries; cheaper goods; transfer of knowledge. These are real, but questions on this trend usually focus on the three products named in the study design.
Tourism
Tourism is travel for leisure or business. Increased international tourism brings both benefits and risks for the destination country and for travellers.
| Positive implications | Negative implications |
|---|---|
| Income and jobs for local people, so they can afford nutritious food, health care and schooling | Faster spread of infectious disease across borders (for example COVID-19 in 2020) |
| Tax revenue that governments can spend on health, water, sanitation and education | Pollution, waste and pressure on water supplies; damage to natural environments |
| Pride in preserving local culture and heritage sites, supporting mental and spiritual health and wellbeing | Exploitation of workers and children, and sex tourism, which spreads sexually transmitted infections |
| Infrastructure built for tourists (roads, airports, clinics) can also serve locals | Seasonal, low-paid work and rising local prices; loss of land and culture |
How the VCAA marked it. In 2022 (Question 5a, average 3.0 out of 6), responses "could focus on positive and/or negative implications" and could make two implications with more discussion or more links with less. The high-scoring example linked tourist spending to local business profits and access to health care (physical), rubbish left by visitors to locals feeling their country is disrespected (emotional), and maintaining heritage sites to community pride and self-esteem (mental). Question 5b (average 0.9 out of 2) asked students to link tourism to one HDI indicator; the accepted example linked tourism income to families being able to afford to send children to school, increasing expected years of schooling.
Digital technologies
Digital technologies include mobile phones, the internet, telehealth, electronic health records, apps, wearables, artificial intelligence and online platforms.
The data. Internet use rose from 40 to 74 per cent of the world's population between 2015 and 2025 (UN, 2026), but 2.2 billion people remain offline, most of them in low- and middle-income countries (ITU, 2025). In 2025, 23.4 per cent of people in low-income countries used the internet, compared with 94.2 per cent in high-income countries (World Bank).
| Positive implications | Negative implications |
|---|---|
| Telehealth and mobile health bring advice, diagnosis and follow-up to remote communities, reducing morbidity | The digital divide: people without devices, connectivity or digital literacy miss out, widening inequalities |
| Text-message reminders and apps support immunisation, antenatal care and medication adherence | Health misinformation spreads quickly on social media (for example about vaccines) |
| Disease surveillance and data sharing speed up outbreak responses | Cyberbullying, online harms and excessive screen time affect mental and social health and wellbeing |
| Online learning and mobile banking expand access to knowledge and income | Privacy and data-security risks with health records |
| Wearables and access to results help people monitor and manage their health | Digital marketing of tobacco, e-cigarettes, alcohol and junk food to young people |
How the VCAA marked it. In 2023 (Question 4, average 2.3 out of 6), a stimulus about Australians using fitness devices, telehealth and My Health Record asked students to analyse implications for health and wellbeing. The report noted that "questions asking for 'implications' do not necessarily have to include a positive and a negative", and that responses had to stay consistent with the stimulus: hacking of test results contradicted the stimulus, which referred to "securely" accessing results.
Command terms and structure
- Identify (1 mark): a reason for mass migration, or a trend (be specific: "conflict", not "fighting").
- Explain (3 to 4 marks): one implication, taken through to a health status measure or dimension.
- Analyse the implications (6 marks): two or more implications, each with a detailed chain, linking to different dimensions or health status indicators. Use the stimulus but add your own knowledge.
- Discuss (in Section B): weigh positive and negative implications if the question allows.
The 2024 report said lower-scoring climate change responses "simply restated the information provided in the case study". Use the stimulus as evidence, then add the mechanism and the outcome.
The 2025 report penalised "linking the implications of mass migration to human development rather than health outcomes". Read the question: health outcomes, health and wellbeing, health status and human development are different targets.
"Impacts health status" and "affects physical health" are too general. Say which measure (life expectancy, burden of disease, morbidity from a named disease) and whether it increases or decreases, and which aspect of a dimension changes.
How this dot point appears in the VCE exam
- Short answer (1 to 2 marks): identify a reason for mass migration (2025 Q10a) or reasons for tobacco marketing in low- and middle-income countries (2022 Q6a).
- Analyse implications (6 marks): mass migration and health outcomes (2025 Q10b), climate change and health and wellbeing in Pakistan (2024 Q10a), tourism (2022 Q5a), digital technologies (2023 Q4).
- Linked questions: a trend and an HDI indicator (2022 Q5b), or a trend and an SDG (2024 Q10 continued with SDG 13 and human development).
Exam-style questions
Questions in the style of VCAA exam questions on this dot point, each with a worked answer. They are written by ExamExplained unless tagged "Past paper"; the year shows the paper a question is modelled on.
2025 VCAA Q10Past paper7 marksa. Identify one reason why populations might mass migrate. (1 mark)
b. Analyse the implications of mass migration on the health outcomes of those migrating. (6 marks)
Show worked answer →
Source: 2025 VCE Health and Human Development examination, Question 10, and the 2025 examiners' report.
Part a (average 0.9; 92 per cent correct). Accepted: conflict, war, climate change, rising sea levels, violation of human rights, natural disasters, poverty, civil unrest, famine, persecution. "Fighting" was not specific enough, because it could mean fighting within a family.
Part b (average 2.7 out of 6, marked holistically). A high-scoring response gave a detailed analysis of at least two implications and at least two detailed, meaningful links to different dimensions of health and wellbeing and/or health status.
- Implications the report accepted (positive or negative)
- migrants running out of money; language barriers; insecure or temporary accommodation without resources; inability to access health care, education or employment; exploitation at work without legal status; racism; loss of identity; violence against women; overcrowding; fear for safety, or a greater sense of safety on arrival; food insecurity.
- Why students lost marks
- Saying mass migration "impacted health status" without naming a measure (such as life expectancy or burden of disease) and whether it rose or fell; being vague about which aspect of a dimension changed; linking to human development instead of health outcomes; and discussing the impacts of the causes of migration (such as war) rather than of migrating.
- High-scoring response (report, summarised)
- Close proximity of large groups spreads pathogens such as influenza, increasing morbidity from infectious disease. Leaving home and country reduces sense of belonging and hope for the future, reducing spiritual health and wellbeing. Losing a job means no income to afford nutritious food and shelter, increasing stress and anxiety and reducing mental health and wellbeing.
2024 VCAA Q10aPast paper6 marks[Stimulus, summarised: an ABC News article (2023) on Pakistan. About 40 per cent of children under five have stunted growth according to a World Bank report, higher in areas hit by 2022 floods that submerged a third of the country; scientists linked the heavier monsoon rains and melting glaciers to climate change; crops were destroyed; a severe heatwave followed; flooding and heatwaves affected children's access to education and the spread of disease.]
Analyse the implications of climate change on health and wellbeing in Pakistan. (6 marks)
Show worked answer →
Source: 2024 VCE Health and Human Development examination, Question 10a, and the 2024 examiners' report. Average 3.2 out of 6.
Relevant points (report): access to food and food security affecting whole-community nutrition; reduced availability of fresh, clean water because of flooding and the spread of disease; severe heatwaves; flooding and heat affecting access to education.
What separated the bands. Lower-scoring responses "simply restated the information provided in the case study". Higher-scoring responses gave detailed links between more than one impact of climate change and three or more dimensions of health and wellbeing.
High-scoring response (report, summarised). Floods that submerged a third of Pakistan in 2022 can contaminate water with bacteria and viruses, increasing the risk of cholera so the body and its systems do not function adequately (physical). Heavy rainfall destroys crops, so farmers cannot sell enough, increasing financial stress and anxiety (mental). Flooding and heatwaves reduce children's access to education, reducing their health literacy and chances to socialise and communicate with other children (social).
2022 VCAA Q6Past paper6 marksAccording to the World Health Organization (WHO), more than 80% of the world's 1.3 billion tobacco users live in low-income and middle-income countries.
a. Identify two reasons why manufacturers of tobacco might target their marketing at low-income and middle-income countries. (2 marks)
b. Explain how the global marketing of tobacco in low-income and middle-income countries may influence burden of disease. (4 marks)
Show worked answer →
Source: 2022 VCE Health and Human Development examination, Question 6, and the 2022 examiners' report. Part a averaged 1.4 out of 2; part b averaged 1.6 out of 4.
Part a, accepted reasons (report): tobacco profits have fallen in high-income countries; fewer laws (for example low tobacco tax or few restrictions on where people can smoke); lower levels of education; governments slower to adopt measures to slow tobacco uptake; governments more likely to take tobacco revenue than value citizens' health; marketing and sales often unregulated; average incomes have increased in many of these countries; a desire to be more like Western cultures. Not accepted: "cigarettes are cheaper", because incomes are also lower.
- Part b
- Students were not eligible for full marks if they "simply stated that smoking increased the risk of a disease without providing any detail of how", and answers had to link to DALY, YLL or YLD.
- High-scoring response (report, summarised)
- People in low- and middle-income countries are more likely to smoke. Smoking can cause faults in body cells as they divide, increasing the risk of lung cancer and so YLL. Smoking also speeds atherosclerosis (plaque building up in the arteries), leading to heart disease and heart attacks, increasing YLD.
- 2026 update
- The WHO now estimates about 1.2 billion tobacco users, around 80 per cent in low- and middle-income countries, and more than 7 million tobacco deaths a year (fact sheet, 26 June 2026).
Practise this
Sources & how we know this
- Climate change (fact sheet, 12 October 2023) — World Health Organization (2023)
- Tobacco and nicotine (fact sheet, 26 June 2026) — World Health Organization (2026)
- Tobacco: E-cigarettes (questions and answers) — World Health Organization
- Obesity and overweight (fact sheet, 8 December 2025) — World Health Organization (2025)
- The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2026: key messages — United Nations (2026)
- Facts and Figures 2025 — International Telecommunication Union (2025)
- World Development Indicators (internet use by income group) — World Bank (2026)
- Progress on household drinking water, sanitation and hygiene 2000-2024: special focus on inequalities — WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme (2025)
- VCE Health and Human Development from 2025: Frequently asked questions (updated February 2026) — VCAA (2026)
- 2025 VCE Health and Human Development external assessment report — VCAA (2026)
- 2024 VCE Health and Human Development external assessment report — VCAA (2025)
- 2023 VCE Health and Human Development external assessment report — VCAA (2024)
- 2022 VCE Health and Human Development external assessment report — VCAA (2023)
- VCE Health and Human Development Study Design (from 2025) — VCAA
- VCE Health and Human Development: examination specifications, past examinations and reports — VCAA