Skip to main content
TASSpecialist MathematicsSyllabus dot point

How can we draw reliable conclusions about a population from a single sample?

Use the distribution of the sample mean and the central limit theorem to construct confidence intervals.

Sampling distribution of the mean, the central limit theorem and confidence intervals for a population mean, with worked examples and pitfalls for TCE Mathematics Specialised.

Generated by Claude Opus 4.79 min answer

Reviewed by: AI editorial process; not yet individually human-reviewed

Have a quick question? Jump to the Q&A page

What this dot point is asking

Statistical inference uses a sample to make justified statements about an entire population. The bridge is the sampling distribution of the sample mean.

So Xˉ\bar{X} is an unbiased estimator of μ\mu, and it becomes more precise as nn grows, since the standard error shrinks like 1n\tfrac{1}{\sqrt{n}}.

This is what makes inference possible even when the population itself is not normal. As a rule of thumb n30n \geq 30 is enough for the approximation to be good.

Confidence intervals

A confidence interval gives a range of plausible values for μ\mu. Using the normal model for Xˉ\bar{X}, a confidence interval for the population mean is

xˉ±zσn, \bar{x} \pm z \,\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}},

where zz is the critical value for the chosen confidence level. The common values are z=1.96z = 1.96 for 95 percent and z=2.576z = 2.576 for 99 percent confidence.

Interpreting the interval correctly

The confidence level describes the long-run reliability of the method: if we repeated the sampling many times and built an interval each time, about 95 percent of those intervals would contain the true μ\mu. It is not a probability statement about μ\mu for one fixed interval.

To halve the width of an interval you must quadruple the sample size, because the width depends on 1n\tfrac{1}{\sqrt{n}}.