How can we draw reliable conclusions about a population from a single sample?
Use the distribution of the sample mean and the central limit theorem to construct confidence intervals.
Sampling distribution of the mean, the central limit theorem and confidence intervals for a population mean, with worked examples and pitfalls for TCE Mathematics Specialised.
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What this dot point is asking
Statistical inference uses a sample to make justified statements about an entire population. The bridge is the sampling distribution of the sample mean.
So is an unbiased estimator of , and it becomes more precise as grows, since the standard error shrinks like .
This is what makes inference possible even when the population itself is not normal. As a rule of thumb is enough for the approximation to be good.
Confidence intervals
A confidence interval gives a range of plausible values for . Using the normal model for , a confidence interval for the population mean is
where is the critical value for the chosen confidence level. The common values are for 95 percent and for 99 percent confidence.
Interpreting the interval correctly
The confidence level describes the long-run reliability of the method: if we repeated the sampling many times and built an interval each time, about 95 percent of those intervals would contain the true . It is not a probability statement about for one fixed interval.
To halve the width of an interval you must quadruple the sample size, because the width depends on .