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NSWMaths Standard 2Syllabus dot point

How do we calculate the theoretical probability of an event from its sample space?

List the sample space of equally likely outcomes and calculate the theoretical probability of an event using P(E)=n(E)n(S)P(E)=\dfrac{n(E)}{n(S)}, the number of favourable outcomes divided by the total number of outcomes

A focused answer to the HSC Maths Standard 2 dot point on theoretical probability. Listing a sample space systematically, equally likely outcomes, the formula P(E) = n(E)/n(S), and finding the probability of single and described compound events on dice and cards, with worked Australian examples.

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What this dot point is asking

NESA wants you to find the chance of an event by reasoning, before any experiment is run. To do that you first write down the sample space, the complete list of everything that could happen, then count how many of those outcomes count as a "win" for the event you care about. The probability is the second count divided by the first. The skill being tested is not the division; it is listing the outcomes systematically so none is missed or double-counted, and recognising when the outcomes are equally likely so the simple formula is allowed. Get the sample space right and every theoretical-probability question in the course becomes one short calculation.

The answer

Theoretical probability is built from two counts. List the sample space SS, the set of all possible outcomes of the activity, and let n(S)n(S) be how many outcomes it contains. Then describe the event EE, the outcomes you are interested in, and let n(E)n(E) be how many of them there are. As long as the outcomes are equally likely, the probability of the event is the fraction of outcomes that are favourable:

P(E)=n(E)n(S)=number of favourable outcomestotal number of outcomes.P(E) = \frac{n(E)}{n(S)} = \frac{\text{number of favourable outcomes}}{\text{total number of outcomes}}.

Everything on this page is an application of that one formula. The work is in building SS carefully and counting EE correctly.

Sample space of one die with the even outcomes forming an eventSix boxes numbered one to six show the sample space of a single die, six equally likely outcomes. The three even faces, two, four and six, are shaded as the favourable outcomes of the event "an even number", giving a probability of three out of six, which simplifies to one half.Sample space of one die: S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}123456Event E = "an even number" is the shaded set {2, 4, 6}P(E) = n(E) ÷ n(S) = 3 ÷ 6 = 1/2

What a sample space is

The sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of a chance activity, and an outcome is one of those single results. For one toss of a coin the sample space is {H,T}\{H, T\}. For one roll of a die it is {1,2,3,4,5,6}\{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6\}. For drawing a card it is the 5252 different cards. We write the sample space inside curly brackets and call the number of outcomes in it n(S)n(S).

An event is a description that picks out some of those outcomes. "Rolling an even number" is the event {2,4,6}\{2, 4, 6\}, a subset of the die's sample space. The outcomes that match the event are the favourable outcomes, and their count is n(E)n(E). A favourable outcome does not mean a good one, just one that satisfies the description.

Equally likely outcomes

The formula P(E)=n(E)n(S)P(E) = \dfrac{n(E)}{n(S)} only works when every outcome in the sample space has the same chance of happening. A fair die, a fair coin, a well-shuffled pack and an evenly divided spinner all produce equally likely outcomes, which is why they appear so often in exam questions. The word "fair", "unbiased", "normal" or "at random" in a question is your signal that the outcomes are equally likely and the formula applies.

Beware of sample spaces that are not equally likely. If you toss two coins and only record the number of heads, the outcomes 00, 11 and 22 heads are not equally likely, because one head can happen two ways (HTHT or THTH) while two heads can happen only one way. The fix is to list the underlying equally likely outcomes (HH,HT,TH,TTHH, HT, TH, TT) and count from those.

Listing outcomes systematically

Counting goes wrong when the list is haphazard. Work to a system so the list is complete and nothing repeats:

  • for one object (a die, a card), list the outcomes in their natural order,
  • for two objects, write each result as an ordered pair and run the first object through all its values while holding the second, then move on; this is exactly what a two-way grid does,
  • count n(S)n(S) and n(E)n(E) from the finished list, never from memory.

For two dice the systematic list is a 6×66 \times 6 grid of ordered pairs, giving n(S)=6×6=36n(S) = 6 \times 6 = 36. The grid below shows it, with the pairs that add to 77 marked so you can see how an event sits inside the sample space.

The thirty-six equally likely outcomes of two dice, with the sum of seven markedA six by six grid lists every ordered pair from rolling a red die across the top and a blue die down the side. All thirty-six pairs are equally likely, and each cell shows the total of its two dice. The six pairs whose two numbers add to seven, from one and six down to six and one, lie on a diagonal; they are shaded and outlined with a bold ring, giving a probability of six out of thirty-six, which simplifies to one sixth.Two dice: 36 equally likely ordered pairsred die across, blue die down; shaded pairs add to 7red dieblue die123456123456234567345678456789567891067891011789101112

The six shaded cells run along a diagonal, one in each row and each column, so the event "the sum is 77" has n(E)=6n(E) = 6 favourable outcomes. The single formula then gives the probability, as the worked examples below show.

How exam questions ask about theoretical probability

The wording changes but the task is nearly always the same two counts:

  • "List the sample space" or "list all possible outcomes" asks for the full set in curly brackets; write every outcome once, in a sensible order.
  • "Find the probability of ..." or "what is the chance of ..." asks for n(E)n(S)\dfrac{n(E)}{n(S)}; identify the favourable outcomes, count them, divide and simplify.
  • "... is even / a multiple of / a factor of / greater than / a prime" describes a compound event by a property; list the outcomes that fit the property before counting.
  • "... red face card / a king / a heart" is a card event; recall the pack has 5252 cards, 1313 per suit, 2626 red, 2626 black, and 1212 face cards (jack, queen, king of each suit).
  • "Give your answer as a fraction in simplest form / as a decimal" tells you the required form; always reduce the fraction, and convert to a decimal only if asked.
  • "How many equally likely outcomes ..." asks only for n(S)n(S); for two stages it is the product of the two counts (two dice give 6×6=366 \times 6 = 36).

Exam-style practice questions

Practice questions written in the style of NESA exam questions on this dot point, with worked answer explainers. The year tag is the paper they imitate, not the source.

2021 HSC-style3 marksA normal six-sided die is rolled once. (a) Find the probability of rolling a number that is both even and greater than 33. (b) Find the probability of rolling a number that is a factor of 66.
Show worked answer →

Part (a): the sample space is {1,2,3,4,5,6}\{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6\} with n(S)=6n(S) = 6. The numbers that are even AND greater than 33 are 44 and 66, so n(E)=2n(E) = 2 and P(E)=26=13P(E) = \tfrac{2}{6} = \tfrac{1}{3}.

Part (b): the factors of 66 are 1,2,3,61, 2, 3, 6, so n(E)=4n(E) = 4 and P(E)=46=23P(E) = \tfrac{4}{6} = \tfrac{2}{3}.

Markers award one mark for a correct sample space or count of favourable outcomes, and one mark for each correct probability written in simplest form. A candidate who lists 4,64, 6 but forgets to simplify 26\tfrac{2}{6} still earns the count mark; the simplest-form fraction secures full marks.

2022 HSC-style4 marksTwo fair six-sided dice are rolled and the sum of the uppermost faces is recorded. (a) Explain why there are 3636 equally likely outcomes. (b) Find the probability that the sum is 88. (c) Find the probability that the sum is at least 1010.
Show worked answer →

Part (a): each die has 66 outcomes, and pairing each of the 66 on the first die with each of the 66 on the second gives 6×6=366 \times 6 = 36 equally likely ordered outcomes. One mark for the clear multiplication reason.

Part (b): the ordered pairs summing to 88 are (2,6),(3,5),(4,4),(5,3),(6,2)(2,6), (3,5), (4,4), (5,3), (6,2), which is 55 pairs, so P(sum=8)=536P(\text{sum} = 8) = \tfrac{5}{36}. One mark.

Part (c): "at least 1010" means a sum of 1010, 1111 or 1212. The pairs are (4,6),(5,5),(6,4)(4,6), (5,5), (6,4) for 1010, (5,6),(6,5)(5,6), (6,5) for 1111, and (6,6)(6,6) for 1212, a total of 66 pairs, so P(sum10)=636=16P(\text{sum} \ge 10) = \tfrac{6}{36} = \tfrac{1}{6}. Markers reward correctly interpreting "at least" as 10\ge 10 and counting all six pairs; a candidate who omits the (4,4)(4,4)-style pairs or miscounts loses the final mark.

2023 HSC-style3 marksA box contains 1212 chocolates: 44 are dark, 55 are milk and 33 are white. One chocolate is chosen at random. (a) Find the probability that it is milk. (b) Find the probability that it is not white. (c) Give your answer to part (b) as a decimal.
Show worked answer →

Part (a): n(S)=12n(S) = 12 and there are 55 milk chocolates, so P(milk)=512P(\text{milk}) = \tfrac{5}{12}. One mark.

Part (b): the chocolates that are not white are the 44 dark and 55 milk, that is 99, so P(not white)=912=34P(\text{not white}) = \tfrac{9}{12} = \tfrac{3}{4}. Equivalently, 33 of 1212 are white so P(not white)=1312=34P(\text{not white}) = 1 - \tfrac{3}{12} = \tfrac{3}{4}. One mark, either route accepted.

Part (c): 34=0.75\tfrac{3}{4} = 0.75. One mark. Markers accept the complement method in (b) and reward a simplified fraction; the decimal mark requires the exact value 0.750.75.

Practice questions

Original practice questions graded from foundation to exam level, each with a full worked solution. Try them before revealing the solution.

foundation2 marksA standard six-sided die is rolled once. (a) List the sample space. (b) State the number of equally likely outcomes.
Show worked solution →

Part (a) - list every possible outcome. A standard die has faces numbered 11 to 66, and each is a single possible result of one roll. Listing them as a set:

S={1,2,3,4,5,6}S = \{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6\}

Part (b) - count the outcomes. There are 66 faces, and each is equally likely on a fair die, so there are n(S)=6n(S) = 6 equally likely outcomes. (Check: the faces are distinct and nothing is left out or repeated, so the count of 66 matches the number of items listed.)

foundation2 marksA fair six-sided die is rolled once. Find the probability of rolling (a) a 44, and (b) an even number. Give each answer as a fraction in simplest form.
Show worked solution →

Set up the sample space. The outcomes are S={1,2,3,4,5,6}S = \{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6\}, so n(S)=6n(S) = 6 equally likely outcomes.

Part (a) - probability of a 44. Only one face shows a 44, so n(E)=1n(E) = 1:

P(4)=n(E)n(S)=16P(4) = \frac{n(E)}{n(S)} = \frac{1}{6}

Part (b) - probability of an even number. The even faces are 2,4,62, 4, 6, so n(E)=3n(E) = 3:

P(even)=36=12P(\text{even}) = \frac{3}{6} = \frac{1}{2}

(Check: 12\tfrac{1}{2} matches the intuition that exactly half the faces are even.)

foundation2 marksA bag contains 55 red, 33 blue and 22 green marbles, all identical apart from colour. One marble is drawn at random. Find the probability that it is (a) blue, and (b) not green.
Show worked solution →

Find the total number of outcomes. Each marble is one equally likely outcome, so

n(S)=5+3+2=10n(S) = 5 + 3 + 2 = 10

Part (a) - probability of blue. There are 33 blue marbles, so n(E)=3n(E) = 3:

P(blue)=310P(\text{blue}) = \frac{3}{10}

Part (b) - probability of not green. The marbles that are not green are the 55 red and 33 blue, giving n(E)=8n(E) = 8:

P(not green)=810=45P(\text{not green}) = \frac{8}{10} = \frac{4}{5}

(Check: there are 22 green out of 1010, that is 210=15\tfrac{2}{10}=\tfrac{1}{5}, and 15+45=1\tfrac{1}{5}+\tfrac{4}{5}=1, which is the whole bag.)

core3 marksA standard pack of 5252 playing cards is shuffled and one card is drawn at random. Find the probability that the card is (a) a heart, (b) a king, and (c) a red face card (a jack, queen or king of hearts or diamonds). Give each answer as a fraction in simplest form.
Show worked solution →

Set up the sample space. A drawn card is equally likely to be any of the 5252 cards, so n(S)=52n(S) = 52.

Part (a) - a heart. There are 1313 hearts, so n(E)=13n(E) = 13:

P(heart)=1352=14P(\text{heart}) = \frac{13}{52} = \frac{1}{4}

Part (b) - a king. There are 44 kings, one per suit, so n(E)=4n(E) = 4:

P(king)=452=113P(\text{king}) = \frac{4}{52} = \frac{1}{13}

Part (c) - a red face card. The face cards are jack, queen and king, that is 33 per suit. The red suits are hearts and diamonds, so the red face cards number 3×2=63 \times 2 = 6, giving n(E)=6n(E) = 6:

P(red face card)=652=326P(\text{red face card}) = \frac{6}{52} = \frac{3}{26}

(Check: each fraction is below 11 and the heart probability 14\tfrac14 matches there being four equal suits.)

core4 marksTwo fair six-sided dice, one red and one blue, are rolled and the two uppermost numbers are recorded as an ordered pair. (a) State the total number of equally likely outcomes. (b) Find the probability that the two numbers are equal (a double). (c) Find the probability that the sum of the two numbers is 77.
Show worked solution →

Part (a) - total outcomes. The red die can show any of 66 numbers, and for each of those the blue die can show any of 66, so by listing the ordered pairs in a 6×66 \times 6 grid:

n(S)=6×6=36n(S) = 6 \times 6 = 36

Part (b) - a double. The doubles are (1,1),(2,2),(3,3),(4,4),(5,5),(6,6)(1,1), (2,2), (3,3), (4,4), (5,5), (6,6), which is n(E)=6n(E) = 6:

P(double)=636=16P(\text{double}) = \frac{6}{36} = \frac{1}{6}

Part (c) - a sum of 77. The ordered pairs adding to 77 are (1,6),(2,5),(3,4),(4,3),(5,2),(6,1)(1,6), (2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2), (6,1), which is n(E)=6n(E) = 6:

P(sum=7)=636=16P(\text{sum} = 7) = \frac{6}{36} = \frac{1}{6}

(Check: both events have 66 favourable pairs out of 3636, and a sum of 77 is well known to be the most likely total, consistent with 16\tfrac16.)

exam4 marksA spinner is divided into 88 equal sectors numbered 11 to 88, and it is spun once. (a) Find the probability of landing on a multiple of 33. (b) Find the probability of landing on a prime number. (c) A second identical spinner is added so that each number from 11 to 88 appears once on each spinner. Explain, without listing them all, why there are 6464 equally likely outcomes when both spinners are spun.
Show worked solution →

Set up the sample space for one spinner. The sectors are S={1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8}S = \{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8\}, all equally likely, so n(S)=8n(S) = 8.

Part (a) - a multiple of 33. The multiples of 33 in the list are 33 and 66, so n(E)=2n(E) = 2:

P(multiple of 3)=28=14P(\text{multiple of } 3) = \frac{2}{8} = \frac{1}{4}

Part (b) - a prime number. The primes from 11 to 88 are 2,3,5,72, 3, 5, 7 (recall 11 is not prime), so n(E)=4n(E) = 4:

P(prime)=48=12P(\text{prime}) = \frac{4}{8} = \frac{1}{2}

Part (c) - why 6464 outcomes. Each spin of the first spinner gives one of 88 equally likely results, and for every one of those the second spinner independently gives one of 88 results. Pairing each of the 88 with each of the 88 gives

8×8=648 \times 8 = 64

equally likely ordered outcomes, which is the same multiplication that builds the 6×66 \times 6 grid for two dice. (Check: 14\tfrac14 and 12\tfrac12 are both sensible, since multiples of 33 are rarer than primes in this range.)

exam5 marksA raffle sells tickets numbered 11 to 200200, and every ticket has an equal chance of being drawn. (a) Find the probability that the winning ticket is a multiple of 1010. (b) Find the probability that the winning number is less than 5050. (c) Hence find the probability that the winning ticket is a multiple of 1010 OR less than 5050. (d) Explain why this is not simply the sum of the answers to (a) and (b).
Show worked solution →

Set up the sample space. Any of the 200200 tickets is equally likely, so n(S)=200n(S) = 200.

Part (a) - a multiple of 1010. The multiples of 1010 from 11 to 200200 are 10,20,,20010, 20, \ldots, 200, which is 200÷10=20200 \div 10 = 20 tickets, so n(E)=20n(E) = 20:

P(multiple of 10)=20200=110P(\text{multiple of } 10) = \frac{20}{200} = \frac{1}{10}

Part (b) - less than 5050. The numbers 1,2,,491, 2, \ldots, 49 are less than 5050, which is 4949 tickets, so n(E)=49n(E) = 49:

P(less than 50)=49200P(\text{less than } 50) = \frac{49}{200}

Part (c) - multiple of 1010 or less than 5050. List the favourable numbers without double-counting. The multiples of 1010 below 5050 are 10,20,30,4010, 20, 30, 40, and these are already counted among the 4949 numbers below 5050. So the new multiples of 1010 to add are 50,60,70,,20050, 60, 70, \ldots, 200, which is 204=1620 - 4 = 16 extra tickets. The total favourable count is

49+16=6549 + 16 = 65

so

P(multiple of 10 or less than 50)=65200=1340P(\text{multiple of } 10 \text{ or less than } 50) = \frac{65}{200} = \frac{13}{40}

Part (d) - why not just add. Adding (a) and (b) would give 20200+49200=69200\tfrac{20}{200} + \tfrac{49}{200} = \tfrac{69}{200}, but that counts the four tickets 10,20,30,4010, 20, 30, 40 twice, since each is both a multiple of 1010 and less than 5050. Removing the 44 double-counted tickets gives 694=6569 - 4 = 65, which matches part (c). (Check: 1340=0.325\tfrac{13}{40} = 0.325, comfortably between the two separate probabilities 0.100.10 and 0.2450.245.)

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