How do we calculate the theoretical probability of an event from its sample space?
List the sample space of equally likely outcomes and calculate the theoretical probability of an event using , the number of favourable outcomes divided by the total number of outcomes
A focused answer to the HSC Maths Standard 2 dot point on theoretical probability. Listing a sample space systematically, equally likely outcomes, the formula P(E) = n(E)/n(S), and finding the probability of single and described compound events on dice and cards, with worked Australian examples.
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What this dot point is asking
NESA wants you to find the chance of an event by reasoning, before any experiment is run. To do that you first write down the sample space, the complete list of everything that could happen, then count how many of those outcomes count as a "win" for the event you care about. The probability is the second count divided by the first. The skill being tested is not the division; it is listing the outcomes systematically so none is missed or double-counted, and recognising when the outcomes are equally likely so the simple formula is allowed. Get the sample space right and every theoretical-probability question in the course becomes one short calculation.
The answer
Theoretical probability is built from two counts. List the sample space , the set of all possible outcomes of the activity, and let be how many outcomes it contains. Then describe the event , the outcomes you are interested in, and let be how many of them there are. As long as the outcomes are equally likely, the probability of the event is the fraction of outcomes that are favourable:
Everything on this page is an application of that one formula. The work is in building carefully and counting correctly.
What a sample space is
The sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of a chance activity, and an outcome is one of those single results. For one toss of a coin the sample space is . For one roll of a die it is . For drawing a card it is the different cards. We write the sample space inside curly brackets and call the number of outcomes in it .
An event is a description that picks out some of those outcomes. "Rolling an even number" is the event , a subset of the die's sample space. The outcomes that match the event are the favourable outcomes, and their count is . A favourable outcome does not mean a good one, just one that satisfies the description.
Equally likely outcomes
The formula only works when every outcome in the sample space has the same chance of happening. A fair die, a fair coin, a well-shuffled pack and an evenly divided spinner all produce equally likely outcomes, which is why they appear so often in exam questions. The word "fair", "unbiased", "normal" or "at random" in a question is your signal that the outcomes are equally likely and the formula applies.
Beware of sample spaces that are not equally likely. If you toss two coins and only record the number of heads, the outcomes , and heads are not equally likely, because one head can happen two ways ( or ) while two heads can happen only one way. The fix is to list the underlying equally likely outcomes () and count from those.
Listing outcomes systematically
Counting goes wrong when the list is haphazard. Work to a system so the list is complete and nothing repeats:
- for one object (a die, a card), list the outcomes in their natural order,
- for two objects, write each result as an ordered pair and run the first object through all its values while holding the second, then move on; this is exactly what a two-way grid does,
- count and from the finished list, never from memory.
For two dice the systematic list is a grid of ordered pairs, giving . The grid below shows it, with the pairs that add to marked so you can see how an event sits inside the sample space.
The six shaded cells run along a diagonal, one in each row and each column, so the event "the sum is " has favourable outcomes. The single formula then gives the probability, as the worked examples below show.
How exam questions ask about theoretical probability
The wording changes but the task is nearly always the same two counts:
- "List the sample space" or "list all possible outcomes" asks for the full set in curly brackets; write every outcome once, in a sensible order.
- "Find the probability of ..." or "what is the chance of ..." asks for ; identify the favourable outcomes, count them, divide and simplify.
- "... is even / a multiple of / a factor of / greater than / a prime" describes a compound event by a property; list the outcomes that fit the property before counting.
- "... red face card / a king / a heart" is a card event; recall the pack has cards, per suit, red, black, and face cards (jack, queen, king of each suit).
- "Give your answer as a fraction in simplest form / as a decimal" tells you the required form; always reduce the fraction, and convert to a decimal only if asked.
- "How many equally likely outcomes ..." asks only for ; for two stages it is the product of the two counts (two dice give ).
Exam-style practice questions
Practice questions written in the style of NESA exam questions on this dot point, with worked answer explainers. The year tag is the paper they imitate, not the source.
2021 HSC-style3 marksA normal six-sided die is rolled once. (a) Find the probability of rolling a number that is both even and greater than . (b) Find the probability of rolling a number that is a factor of .Show worked answer →
Part (a): the sample space is with . The numbers that are even AND greater than are and , so and .
Part (b): the factors of are , so and .
Markers award one mark for a correct sample space or count of favourable outcomes, and one mark for each correct probability written in simplest form. A candidate who lists but forgets to simplify still earns the count mark; the simplest-form fraction secures full marks.
2022 HSC-style4 marksTwo fair six-sided dice are rolled and the sum of the uppermost faces is recorded. (a) Explain why there are equally likely outcomes. (b) Find the probability that the sum is . (c) Find the probability that the sum is at least .Show worked answer →
Part (a): each die has outcomes, and pairing each of the on the first die with each of the on the second gives equally likely ordered outcomes. One mark for the clear multiplication reason.
Part (b): the ordered pairs summing to are , which is pairs, so . One mark.
Part (c): "at least " means a sum of , or . The pairs are for , for , and for , a total of pairs, so . Markers reward correctly interpreting "at least" as and counting all six pairs; a candidate who omits the -style pairs or miscounts loses the final mark.
2023 HSC-style3 marksA box contains chocolates: are dark, are milk and are white. One chocolate is chosen at random. (a) Find the probability that it is milk. (b) Find the probability that it is not white. (c) Give your answer to part (b) as a decimal.Show worked answer →
Part (a): and there are milk chocolates, so . One mark.
Part (b): the chocolates that are not white are the dark and milk, that is , so . Equivalently, of are white so . One mark, either route accepted.
Part (c): . One mark. Markers accept the complement method in (b) and reward a simplified fraction; the decimal mark requires the exact value .
Practice questions
Original practice questions graded from foundation to exam level, each with a full worked solution. Try them before revealing the solution.
foundation2 marksA standard six-sided die is rolled once. (a) List the sample space. (b) State the number of equally likely outcomes.Show worked solution →
Part (a) - list every possible outcome. A standard die has faces numbered to , and each is a single possible result of one roll. Listing them as a set:
Part (b) - count the outcomes. There are faces, and each is equally likely on a fair die, so there are equally likely outcomes. (Check: the faces are distinct and nothing is left out or repeated, so the count of matches the number of items listed.)
foundation2 marksA fair six-sided die is rolled once. Find the probability of rolling (a) a , and (b) an even number. Give each answer as a fraction in simplest form.Show worked solution →
Set up the sample space. The outcomes are , so equally likely outcomes.
Part (a) - probability of a . Only one face shows a , so :
Part (b) - probability of an even number. The even faces are , so :
(Check: matches the intuition that exactly half the faces are even.)
foundation2 marksA bag contains red, blue and green marbles, all identical apart from colour. One marble is drawn at random. Find the probability that it is (a) blue, and (b) not green.Show worked solution →
Find the total number of outcomes. Each marble is one equally likely outcome, so
Part (a) - probability of blue. There are blue marbles, so :
Part (b) - probability of not green. The marbles that are not green are the red and blue, giving :
(Check: there are green out of , that is , and , which is the whole bag.)
core3 marksA standard pack of playing cards is shuffled and one card is drawn at random. Find the probability that the card is (a) a heart, (b) a king, and (c) a red face card (a jack, queen or king of hearts or diamonds). Give each answer as a fraction in simplest form.Show worked solution →
Set up the sample space. A drawn card is equally likely to be any of the cards, so .
Part (a) - a heart. There are hearts, so :
Part (b) - a king. There are kings, one per suit, so :
Part (c) - a red face card. The face cards are jack, queen and king, that is per suit. The red suits are hearts and diamonds, so the red face cards number , giving :
(Check: each fraction is below and the heart probability matches there being four equal suits.)
core4 marksTwo fair six-sided dice, one red and one blue, are rolled and the two uppermost numbers are recorded as an ordered pair. (a) State the total number of equally likely outcomes. (b) Find the probability that the two numbers are equal (a double). (c) Find the probability that the sum of the two numbers is .Show worked solution →
Part (a) - total outcomes. The red die can show any of numbers, and for each of those the blue die can show any of , so by listing the ordered pairs in a grid:
Part (b) - a double. The doubles are , which is :
Part (c) - a sum of . The ordered pairs adding to are , which is :
(Check: both events have favourable pairs out of , and a sum of is well known to be the most likely total, consistent with .)
exam4 marksA spinner is divided into equal sectors numbered to , and it is spun once. (a) Find the probability of landing on a multiple of . (b) Find the probability of landing on a prime number. (c) A second identical spinner is added so that each number from to appears once on each spinner. Explain, without listing them all, why there are equally likely outcomes when both spinners are spun.Show worked solution →
Set up the sample space for one spinner. The sectors are , all equally likely, so .
Part (a) - a multiple of . The multiples of in the list are and , so :
Part (b) - a prime number. The primes from to are (recall is not prime), so :
Part (c) - why outcomes. Each spin of the first spinner gives one of equally likely results, and for every one of those the second spinner independently gives one of results. Pairing each of the with each of the gives
equally likely ordered outcomes, which is the same multiplication that builds the grid for two dice. (Check: and are both sensible, since multiples of are rarer than primes in this range.)
exam5 marksA raffle sells tickets numbered to , and every ticket has an equal chance of being drawn. (a) Find the probability that the winning ticket is a multiple of . (b) Find the probability that the winning number is less than . (c) Hence find the probability that the winning ticket is a multiple of OR less than . (d) Explain why this is not simply the sum of the answers to (a) and (b).Show worked solution →
Set up the sample space. Any of the tickets is equally likely, so .
Part (a) - a multiple of . The multiples of from to are , which is tickets, so :
Part (b) - less than . The numbers are less than , which is tickets, so :
Part (c) - multiple of or less than . List the favourable numbers without double-counting. The multiples of below are , and these are already counted among the numbers below . So the new multiples of to add are , which is extra tickets. The total favourable count is
so
Part (d) - why not just add. Adding (a) and (b) would give , but that counts the four tickets twice, since each is both a multiple of and less than . Removing the double-counted tickets gives , which matches part (c). (Check: , comfortably between the two separate probabilities and .)
Related dot points
- Describe the likelihood of an event using the language of chance and the probability scale from 0 to 1, distinguishing fair from biased and equally likely outcomes
A focused answer to the HSC Maths Standard 2 dot point on the language of probability. The likelihood scale from impossible to certain, describing chance in words and as a number between 0 and 1, even chance, likely and unlikely, the meaning of fair versus biased, and equally likely outcomes, with worked Australian examples.
- Recognise that probabilities of events range from 0 to 1, identify the complement of an event and use the relationship that the probability of an event and its complement sum to 1, so the probability of 'not E' equals 1 minus the probability of E
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- Use arrays and tree diagrams to determine the outcomes and probabilities for multi-stage experiments, including two-way tables, multiplying probabilities along the branches of a tree diagram and adding the probabilities of mutually exclusive outcomes, with and without replacement
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- Calculate relative frequencies to estimate probabilities of events, where relative frequency = frequency of the event divided by the total number of trials, recognising that as the number of trials increases the relative frequency approaches the theoretical probability
A focused answer to the HSC Maths Standard 2 dot point on relative frequency. Relative frequency as frequency divided by total, using it as an experimental probability, estimating the chance of a real event from collected data, and the long-run convergence of relative frequency toward the theoretical probability, with worked Australian examples.
- Calculate the expected frequency of an event from the probability of the event and the number of trials, using expected frequency = P(E) x number of trials
A focused answer to the HSC Maths Standard 2 dot point on expected frequency. The rule expected frequency = P(E) times the number of trials, predicting how many times an event should happen over many trials, the expected-versus-observed difference, and working backwards to find the number of trials from an expected count, with worked Australian examples.