Skip to main content
NSWMaths Standard 2Syllabus dot point

How do we estimate a probability from experimental data using relative frequency, and why does the estimate settle toward the theoretical probability as more trials are run?

Calculate relative frequencies to estimate probabilities of events, where relative frequency = frequency of the event divided by the total number of trials, recognising that as the number of trials increases the relative frequency approaches the theoretical probability

A focused answer to the HSC Maths Standard 2 dot point on relative frequency. Relative frequency as frequency divided by total, using it as an experimental probability, estimating the chance of a real event from collected data, and the long-run convergence of relative frequency toward the theoretical probability, with worked Australian examples.

Generated by Claude Opus 4.813 min answer

Reviewed by: AI editorial process; not yet individually human-reviewed

Have a quick question? Jump to the Q&A page

What this dot point is asking

NESA wants you to estimate a probability from data you have actually collected, rather than from a theoretical argument. The tool is relative frequency: how often an event happened, divided by how many trials you ran. You need to compute it correctly from a results table, use it as an estimate of probability for real situations where no clean theory exists, and explain the key idea that ties experiment back to theory - that as the number of trials grows, the relative frequency settles toward the theoretical probability. The arithmetic is a single division. The marks live in choosing the right two numbers, simplifying cleanly, and writing a clear sentence about long-run behaviour.

The answer

Relative frequency is the experimental version of probability. You run an experiment (or collect data), count how many times the event of interest occurred, and divide by the total number of trials:

relative frequency=frequency of the eventtotal number of trials.\text{relative frequency} = \frac{\text{frequency of the event}}{\text{total number of trials}}.

That single fraction is your estimate of the probability. Because it is a count divided by a larger-or-equal count, it always lands between 00 and 11, just like any probability. The real depth of the topic is the second idea: a relative frequency from a handful of trials can be wildly off, but as you keep running trials it homes in on the true (theoretical) probability. The diagram below shows this convergence for the relative frequency of rolling a six on a fair die, which has theoretical probability 160.167\tfrac{1}{6} \approx 0.167.

Relative frequency converging toward the theoretical probabilityA graph of the relative frequency of rolling a six against the number of trials. The horizontal dashed line marks the theoretical probability of one sixth, about 0.167. The jagged experimental line starts far from the dashed line at small numbers of trials, swinging between 0.10 and 0.20, then settles close to the dashed line as the number of trials grows from ten to six hundred and forty.Relative frequency settles toward the true probabilityrelativefrequencynumber of trials00.10.20.30.410204080160320640true P = 1/6Few trials: the line swings widely. Many trials: it hugs the true value.

Computing relative frequency from a results table

Most exam data arrives as a frequency table. The method is always the same three steps:

  • find the total number of trials by adding every frequency,
  • read off the frequency of the event you want (adding several rows if the event covers more than one outcome, such as "an even number"),
  • divide the event frequency by the total, then simplify to a fraction and convert to a decimal.

For example, if a die rolled 6060 times gives a 44 on 1212 of those rolls, the relative frequency of a 44 is 1260=15=0.2\tfrac{12}{60} = \tfrac{1}{5} = 0.2. If the event is "an even number", add the frequencies of 22, 44 and 66 first, then divide that sum by 6060.

Relative frequency as experimental probability

When the outcomes are not equally likely, or you simply have no theory to work from - a drawing pin landing point-up, a basketballer sinking a free throw, a household owning a pet - you cannot compute a theoretical probability. So you estimate it from data. The relative frequency you measure is taken as the probability:

P(event)frequency of the eventtotal number of trials.P(\text{event}) \approx \frac{\text{frequency of the event}}{\text{total number of trials}}.

This is why relative frequency is also called experimental probability: it is a probability read straight off an experiment. Once you have it, you can predict counts in a new run by multiplying: if the relative frequency of a faulty globe is 0.150.15, then in a batch of 2000020\,000 you expect about 0.15×20000=30000.15 \times 20\,000 = 3000 faulty globes.

Long-run convergence to the theoretical probability

Here is the idea that NESA most wants you to be able to explain. A relative frequency from a small number of trials is unreliable - a fair coin can easily show 77 heads in 1010 tosses, a relative frequency of 0.70.7, nowhere near 0.50.5. But as the number of trials increases, the relative frequency settles toward the theoretical probability. Toss that fair coin 10001000 times and the proportion of heads will sit close to 0.50.5. The diagram above shows the same effect for a die's six: jagged and far from 16\tfrac{1}{6} early on, then hugging 16\tfrac{1}{6} once the trials pile up.

This cuts both ways. It tells you that more trials give a better estimate, so when two samples disagree you trust the larger one. And it gives you a way to judge fairness: if a coin's long-run relative frequency of heads stays near 0.50.5, the evidence supports a fair coin; if it steadies somewhere well away from 0.50.5, the coin is likely biased.

How exam questions ask about relative frequency

The wording shifts, but each version points to the same fraction or the same convergence idea:

  • "Find the relative frequency of ..." is the plain calculation: frequency of the event over the total number of trials, then simplify and give a decimal.
  • "Use relative frequency to estimate the probability that ..." means compute the relative frequency and quote it as the probability - the two are the same number here.
  • "How many would you expect ..." or "estimate how many ..." asks for a count: multiply the relative frequency by the new number of trials.
  • "What value is the relative frequency approaching?" is the convergence idea: name the theoretical probability the proportions are settling toward.
  • "Whose estimate is more reliable?" or "why should the small sample not be relied on?" wants you to say that relative frequency approaches the theoretical probability as trials increase, so the larger sample is more trustworthy and small samples vary by chance.
  • "Is the coin / die / spinner fair?" asks you to compare the long-run relative frequency with the theoretical probability and comment.

Exam-style practice questions

Practice questions written in the style of NESA exam questions on this dot point, with worked answer explainers. The year tag is the paper they imitate, not the source.

2022 HSC-style3 marksA bag contains red and blue counters. A counter is drawn, its colour recorded, and it is returned to the bag. After 250250 draws, a red counter has been drawn 9090 times. (a) Find the relative frequency of drawing a red counter. (b) Estimate the probability of drawing a blue counter. (c) The bag is known to contain 2020 counters. Estimate how many are red.
Show worked answer →

Part (a): relative frequency of red is 90250=925=0.36\tfrac{90}{250} = \tfrac{9}{25} = 0.36.

Part (b): blue is the complement, so its estimated probability is 10.36=0.641 - 0.36 = 0.64 (equivalently 160250=0.64\tfrac{160}{250} = 0.64).

Part (c): apply the red relative frequency to the 2020 counters: 0.36×20=7.20.36 \times 20 = 7.2, so about 77 counters are red.

Markers reward the correct relative frequency in part (a), use of the complement (or the blue count over the total) in part (b), and multiplying the probability by 2020 then rounding sensibly in part (c). A bald answer with no working may be capped for showing no method.

2021 HSC-style4 marksA student records the relative frequency of a tossed bottle landing upright as the number of tosses increases: after 2020 tosses it is 0.300.30, after 100100 it is 0.180.18, after 500500 it is 0.1420.142, and after 20002000 it is 0.1350.135. (a) Describe how the relative frequency changes as the number of tosses increases. (b) Estimate the probability that the bottle lands upright, justifying your choice. (c) Explain why the estimate from 2020 tosses should not be relied on.
Show worked answer →

Part (a): the relative frequency starts high (0.300.30) and decreases, then steadies, settling close to about 0.1350.135 as the number of tosses grows.

Part (b): the best estimate is the value after the most tosses, about 0.1350.135 (accept 0.130.13 to 0.140.14), because relative frequency approaches the theoretical probability as the number of trials increases, so the largest sample gives the most reliable estimate.

Part (c): with only 2020 tosses the sample is small, so chance variation can push the relative frequency a long way from the true probability; the value 0.300.30 is more than double the long-run figure, showing how unreliable a small sample is.

Markers reward describing the trend as converging or steadying (not just "it goes down"), choosing the large-sample value with a reason tied to the number of trials, and a clear statement that small samples are unreliable.

2023 HSC-style3 marksOver a season, a netball goal shooter scores from 68%68\% of her shots. In the grand final she takes 2525 shots. (a) Based on her season record, find the expected number of goals from 2525 shots. (b) She actually scores 2020 goals in the final. Find the relative frequency of scoring for the final alone. (c) Give one reason her final relative frequency might differ from her season figure.
Show worked answer →

Part (a): expected goals =0.68×25=17= 0.68 \times 25 = 17, so about 1717 goals.

Part (b): relative frequency for the final is 2025=45=0.8\tfrac{20}{25} = \tfrac{4}{5} = 0.8 (that is 80%80\%).

Part (c): any sensible reason that a single 2525-shot game is a small sample subject to chance variation - she had a hot game, faced an easier defence, or simply that a small number of shots can sit well above the long-run figure.

Markers reward 0.68×25=170.68 \times 25 = 17 in part (a), the simplified relative frequency 0.80.8 in part (b), and a reason in part (c) that links the gap to small-sample variability rather than restating the numbers.

Practice questions

Original practice questions graded from foundation to exam level, each with a full worked solution. Try them before revealing the solution.

foundation2 marksA spinner is spun 5050 times and lands on red 1212 times. Find the relative frequency of landing on red, as a fraction in simplest form and as a decimal.
Show worked solution →

Write the relative frequency formula. Relative frequency is the number of times the event happens divided by the total number of trials:

relative frequency=frequency of the eventtotal number of trials\text{relative frequency} = \frac{\text{frequency of the event}}{\text{total number of trials}}

Substitute the numbers. Red came up 1212 times out of 5050 spins:

1250=625=0.24\frac{12}{50} = \frac{6}{25} = 0.24

so the relative frequency of red is 625\tfrac{6}{25}, or 0.240.24. (Check it is a sensible probability: it lies between 00 and 11, as every relative frequency must.)

foundation2 marksIn a survey, 200200 households are asked whether they own a pet; 130130 say yes. Use relative frequency to estimate the probability that a randomly chosen household owns a pet.
Show worked solution →

Treat the survey as the experiment. The estimated probability is the relative frequency of a yes answer:

P(owns a pet)number of yes answerstotal surveyed=130200P(\text{owns a pet}) \approx \frac{\text{number of yes answers}}{\text{total surveyed}} = \frac{130}{200}

Simplify and convert.

130200=1320=0.65\frac{130}{200} = \frac{13}{20} = 0.65

so the estimated probability is 0.650.65 (that is 65%65\%). (Sanity check: more than half said yes, and 0.65>0.50.65 > 0.5, which agrees.)

foundation3 marksA six-sided die is rolled 6060 times. The results are recorded in the table below. (a) Find the relative frequency of rolling a 44. (b) Find the relative frequency of rolling an even number. Give each as a fraction in simplest form and as a decimal. | Number | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | Frequency | 8 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 10 |
Show worked solution →

Confirm the total. The frequencies must add to the number of trials:

8+11+9+12+10+10=608 + 11 + 9 + 12 + 10 + 10 = 60

so the total is 6060, as stated.

Part (a) - relative frequency of a 44. A 44 appeared 1212 times out of 6060:

1260=15=0.2\frac{12}{60} = \frac{1}{5} = 0.2

so the relative frequency of a 44 is 15\tfrac{1}{5}, or 0.20.2.

Part (b) - relative frequency of an even number. The even outcomes are 22, 44 and 66, so add their frequencies:

11+12+10=3311 + 12 + 10 = 33

then divide by the total:

3360=1120=0.55\frac{33}{60} = \frac{11}{20} = 0.55

so the relative frequency of an even number is 1120\tfrac{11}{20}, or 0.550.55. (Cross-check: the odd outcomes total 8+9+10=278 + 9 + 10 = 27, and 2760=0.45\tfrac{27}{60} = 0.45, and 0.55+0.45=10.55 + 0.45 = 1, as the two complementary relative frequencies should.)

core3 marksA basketballer attempts 8080 free throws in training and makes 5656 of them. (a) Use relative frequency to estimate the probability that she makes her next free throw. (b) Based on this estimate, how many of her next 2525 free throws would you expect her to make?
Show worked solution →

Part (a) - estimate the probability. The relative frequency of a successful free throw is the made shots over the total attempts:

P(make)5680=710=0.7P(\text{make}) \approx \frac{56}{80} = \frac{7}{10} = 0.7

so the estimated probability is 0.70.7 (that is 70%70\%).

Part (b) - expected number in 2525 attempts. Multiply the estimated probability by the number of new attempts:

0.7×25=17.50.7 \times 25 = 17.5

so she would be expected to make about 17.517.5 free throws, which we read as roughly 1717 or 1818 out of 2525. (The expected number need not be a whole number; it is a long-run average, so "about 1818" is the natural way to report it.)

core3 marksA factory tests a sample of 300300 light globes and finds that 4545 are faulty. (a) Find the relative frequency of a faulty globe. (b) The factory makes 2000020\,000 globes in a week. Estimate how many of them are faulty.
Show worked solution →

Part (a) - relative frequency of a faulty globe. Divide the faulty count by the sample size:

45300=320=0.15\frac{45}{300} = \frac{3}{20} = 0.15

so the relative frequency of a faulty globe is 320\tfrac{3}{20}, or 0.150.15.

Part (b) - estimate the weekly faulty count. Use the relative frequency as the probability that any globe is faulty, then apply it to the week's production:

0.15×20000=30000.15 \times 20\,000 = 3000

so about 30003000 globes are expected to be faulty that week. (Check the scale: 15%15\% of 2000020\,000 is 30003000, which matches.)

core4 marksA coin is tossed and the running number of heads is recorded as the trials build up. After 1010 tosses there are 77 heads; after 5050 there are 2727; after 100100 there are 5353; after 500500 there are 251251; after 10001000 there are 504504. (a) Find the relative frequency of heads after 1010 tosses and after 10001000 tosses, as decimals. (b) What value do these relative frequencies appear to be approaching? (c) Explain what this tells you about whether the coin is fair.
Show worked solution →

Part (a) - the two relative frequencies. After 1010 tosses:

710=0.7\frac{7}{10} = 0.7

After 10001000 tosses:

5041000=0.504\frac{504}{1000} = 0.504

Part (b) - the value being approached. Writing the full sequence of relative frequencies:

0.7,2750=0.54,53100=0.53,251500=0.502,0.5040.7, \quad \frac{27}{50} = 0.54, \quad \frac{53}{100} = 0.53, \quad \frac{251}{500} = 0.502, \quad 0.504

these settle down toward 0.50.5.

Part (c) - is the coin fair? A fair coin has a theoretical probability of heads of 0.50.5. The relative frequency starts well off (0.70.7 after only 1010 tosses) but steadies near 0.50.5 as the number of tosses grows, which is exactly the behaviour expected of a fair coin. So the evidence is consistent with a fair coin. (Check the direction of the trend: the early value is far from 0.50.5 and the later values cluster around it, which is the long-run convergence at work.)

exam5 marksTwo students estimate the probability that a drawing pin lands point-up when dropped. Mia drops it 2020 times and it lands point-up 99 times. Sam drops the same pin 400400 times and it lands point-up 164164 times. (a) Find each student's relative frequency for point-up, as a decimal. (b) State, with a reason, whose estimate of the true probability you would trust more. (c) The pin is dropped a further 250250 times. Using the more reliable estimate, find the expected number of point-up landings, to the nearest whole number.
Show worked solution →

Part (a) - the two relative frequencies. For Mia:

920=0.45\frac{9}{20} = 0.45

For Sam:

164400=41100=0.41\frac{164}{400} = \frac{41}{100} = 0.41

Part (b) - whose estimate to trust. Sam's, because it is based on far more trials. Relative frequency approaches the theoretical probability as the number of trials increases, so an estimate from 400400 drops is far more reliable than one from only 2020. Mia's small sample can swing a long way from the true value by chance.

Part (c) - expected point-up landings in 250250 drops. Use Sam's estimate as the probability and multiply by the number of new drops:

0.41×250=102.50.41 \times 250 = 102.5

so about 102.5102.5, which to the nearest whole number is 103103 point-up landings. (Check: 0.410.41 is close to 0.40.4, and 0.4×250=1000.4 \times 250 = 100, so an answer just above 100100 is sensible.)

Related dot points