How do we estimate a probability from experimental data using relative frequency, and why does the estimate settle toward the theoretical probability as more trials are run?
Calculate relative frequencies to estimate probabilities of events, where relative frequency = frequency of the event divided by the total number of trials, recognising that as the number of trials increases the relative frequency approaches the theoretical probability
A focused answer to the HSC Maths Standard 2 dot point on relative frequency. Relative frequency as frequency divided by total, using it as an experimental probability, estimating the chance of a real event from collected data, and the long-run convergence of relative frequency toward the theoretical probability, with worked Australian examples.
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What this dot point is asking
NESA wants you to estimate a probability from data you have actually collected, rather than from a theoretical argument. The tool is relative frequency: how often an event happened, divided by how many trials you ran. You need to compute it correctly from a results table, use it as an estimate of probability for real situations where no clean theory exists, and explain the key idea that ties experiment back to theory - that as the number of trials grows, the relative frequency settles toward the theoretical probability. The arithmetic is a single division. The marks live in choosing the right two numbers, simplifying cleanly, and writing a clear sentence about long-run behaviour.
The answer
Relative frequency is the experimental version of probability. You run an experiment (or collect data), count how many times the event of interest occurred, and divide by the total number of trials:
That single fraction is your estimate of the probability. Because it is a count divided by a larger-or-equal count, it always lands between and , just like any probability. The real depth of the topic is the second idea: a relative frequency from a handful of trials can be wildly off, but as you keep running trials it homes in on the true (theoretical) probability. The diagram below shows this convergence for the relative frequency of rolling a six on a fair die, which has theoretical probability .
Computing relative frequency from a results table
Most exam data arrives as a frequency table. The method is always the same three steps:
- find the total number of trials by adding every frequency,
- read off the frequency of the event you want (adding several rows if the event covers more than one outcome, such as "an even number"),
- divide the event frequency by the total, then simplify to a fraction and convert to a decimal.
For example, if a die rolled times gives a on of those rolls, the relative frequency of a is . If the event is "an even number", add the frequencies of , and first, then divide that sum by .
Relative frequency as experimental probability
When the outcomes are not equally likely, or you simply have no theory to work from - a drawing pin landing point-up, a basketballer sinking a free throw, a household owning a pet - you cannot compute a theoretical probability. So you estimate it from data. The relative frequency you measure is taken as the probability:
This is why relative frequency is also called experimental probability: it is a probability read straight off an experiment. Once you have it, you can predict counts in a new run by multiplying: if the relative frequency of a faulty globe is , then in a batch of you expect about faulty globes.
Long-run convergence to the theoretical probability
Here is the idea that NESA most wants you to be able to explain. A relative frequency from a small number of trials is unreliable - a fair coin can easily show heads in tosses, a relative frequency of , nowhere near . But as the number of trials increases, the relative frequency settles toward the theoretical probability. Toss that fair coin times and the proportion of heads will sit close to . The diagram above shows the same effect for a die's six: jagged and far from early on, then hugging once the trials pile up.
This cuts both ways. It tells you that more trials give a better estimate, so when two samples disagree you trust the larger one. And it gives you a way to judge fairness: if a coin's long-run relative frequency of heads stays near , the evidence supports a fair coin; if it steadies somewhere well away from , the coin is likely biased.
How exam questions ask about relative frequency
The wording shifts, but each version points to the same fraction or the same convergence idea:
- "Find the relative frequency of ..." is the plain calculation: frequency of the event over the total number of trials, then simplify and give a decimal.
- "Use relative frequency to estimate the probability that ..." means compute the relative frequency and quote it as the probability - the two are the same number here.
- "How many would you expect ..." or "estimate how many ..." asks for a count: multiply the relative frequency by the new number of trials.
- "What value is the relative frequency approaching?" is the convergence idea: name the theoretical probability the proportions are settling toward.
- "Whose estimate is more reliable?" or "why should the small sample not be relied on?" wants you to say that relative frequency approaches the theoretical probability as trials increase, so the larger sample is more trustworthy and small samples vary by chance.
- "Is the coin / die / spinner fair?" asks you to compare the long-run relative frequency with the theoretical probability and comment.
Exam-style practice questions
Practice questions written in the style of NESA exam questions on this dot point, with worked answer explainers. The year tag is the paper they imitate, not the source.
2022 HSC-style3 marksA bag contains red and blue counters. A counter is drawn, its colour recorded, and it is returned to the bag. After draws, a red counter has been drawn times. (a) Find the relative frequency of drawing a red counter. (b) Estimate the probability of drawing a blue counter. (c) The bag is known to contain counters. Estimate how many are red.Show worked answer →
Part (a): relative frequency of red is .
Part (b): blue is the complement, so its estimated probability is (equivalently ).
Part (c): apply the red relative frequency to the counters: , so about counters are red.
Markers reward the correct relative frequency in part (a), use of the complement (or the blue count over the total) in part (b), and multiplying the probability by then rounding sensibly in part (c). A bald answer with no working may be capped for showing no method.
2021 HSC-style4 marksA student records the relative frequency of a tossed bottle landing upright as the number of tosses increases: after tosses it is , after it is , after it is , and after it is . (a) Describe how the relative frequency changes as the number of tosses increases. (b) Estimate the probability that the bottle lands upright, justifying your choice. (c) Explain why the estimate from tosses should not be relied on.Show worked answer →
Part (a): the relative frequency starts high () and decreases, then steadies, settling close to about as the number of tosses grows.
Part (b): the best estimate is the value after the most tosses, about (accept to ), because relative frequency approaches the theoretical probability as the number of trials increases, so the largest sample gives the most reliable estimate.
Part (c): with only tosses the sample is small, so chance variation can push the relative frequency a long way from the true probability; the value is more than double the long-run figure, showing how unreliable a small sample is.
Markers reward describing the trend as converging or steadying (not just "it goes down"), choosing the large-sample value with a reason tied to the number of trials, and a clear statement that small samples are unreliable.
2023 HSC-style3 marksOver a season, a netball goal shooter scores from of her shots. In the grand final she takes shots. (a) Based on her season record, find the expected number of goals from shots. (b) She actually scores goals in the final. Find the relative frequency of scoring for the final alone. (c) Give one reason her final relative frequency might differ from her season figure.Show worked answer →
Part (a): expected goals , so about goals.
Part (b): relative frequency for the final is (that is ).
Part (c): any sensible reason that a single -shot game is a small sample subject to chance variation - she had a hot game, faced an easier defence, or simply that a small number of shots can sit well above the long-run figure.
Markers reward in part (a), the simplified relative frequency in part (b), and a reason in part (c) that links the gap to small-sample variability rather than restating the numbers.
Practice questions
Original practice questions graded from foundation to exam level, each with a full worked solution. Try them before revealing the solution.
foundation2 marksA spinner is spun times and lands on red times. Find the relative frequency of landing on red, as a fraction in simplest form and as a decimal.Show worked solution →
Write the relative frequency formula. Relative frequency is the number of times the event happens divided by the total number of trials:
Substitute the numbers. Red came up times out of spins:
so the relative frequency of red is , or . (Check it is a sensible probability: it lies between and , as every relative frequency must.)
foundation2 marksIn a survey, households are asked whether they own a pet; say yes. Use relative frequency to estimate the probability that a randomly chosen household owns a pet.Show worked solution →
Treat the survey as the experiment. The estimated probability is the relative frequency of a yes answer:
Simplify and convert.
so the estimated probability is (that is ). (Sanity check: more than half said yes, and , which agrees.)
foundation3 marksA six-sided die is rolled times. The results are recorded in the table below. (a) Find the relative frequency of rolling a . (b) Find the relative frequency of rolling an even number. Give each as a fraction in simplest form and as a decimal.
| Number | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frequency | 8 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 10 |Show worked solution →
Confirm the total. The frequencies must add to the number of trials:
so the total is , as stated.
Part (a) - relative frequency of a . A appeared times out of :
so the relative frequency of a is , or .
Part (b) - relative frequency of an even number. The even outcomes are , and , so add their frequencies:
then divide by the total:
so the relative frequency of an even number is , or . (Cross-check: the odd outcomes total , and , and , as the two complementary relative frequencies should.)
core3 marksA basketballer attempts free throws in training and makes of them. (a) Use relative frequency to estimate the probability that she makes her next free throw. (b) Based on this estimate, how many of her next free throws would you expect her to make?Show worked solution →
Part (a) - estimate the probability. The relative frequency of a successful free throw is the made shots over the total attempts:
so the estimated probability is (that is ).
Part (b) - expected number in attempts. Multiply the estimated probability by the number of new attempts:
so she would be expected to make about free throws, which we read as roughly or out of . (The expected number need not be a whole number; it is a long-run average, so "about " is the natural way to report it.)
core3 marksA factory tests a sample of light globes and finds that are faulty. (a) Find the relative frequency of a faulty globe. (b) The factory makes globes in a week. Estimate how many of them are faulty.Show worked solution →
Part (a) - relative frequency of a faulty globe. Divide the faulty count by the sample size:
so the relative frequency of a faulty globe is , or .
Part (b) - estimate the weekly faulty count. Use the relative frequency as the probability that any globe is faulty, then apply it to the week's production:
so about globes are expected to be faulty that week. (Check the scale: of is , which matches.)
core4 marksA coin is tossed and the running number of heads is recorded as the trials build up. After tosses there are heads; after there are ; after there are ; after there are ; after there are . (a) Find the relative frequency of heads after tosses and after tosses, as decimals. (b) What value do these relative frequencies appear to be approaching? (c) Explain what this tells you about whether the coin is fair.Show worked solution →
Part (a) - the two relative frequencies. After tosses:
After tosses:
Part (b) - the value being approached. Writing the full sequence of relative frequencies:
these settle down toward .
Part (c) - is the coin fair? A fair coin has a theoretical probability of heads of . The relative frequency starts well off ( after only tosses) but steadies near as the number of tosses grows, which is exactly the behaviour expected of a fair coin. So the evidence is consistent with a fair coin. (Check the direction of the trend: the early value is far from and the later values cluster around it, which is the long-run convergence at work.)
exam5 marksTwo students estimate the probability that a drawing pin lands point-up when dropped. Mia drops it times and it lands point-up times. Sam drops the same pin times and it lands point-up times. (a) Find each student's relative frequency for point-up, as a decimal. (b) State, with a reason, whose estimate of the true probability you would trust more. (c) The pin is dropped a further times. Using the more reliable estimate, find the expected number of point-up landings, to the nearest whole number.Show worked solution →
Part (a) - the two relative frequencies. For Mia:
For Sam:
Part (b) - whose estimate to trust. Sam's, because it is based on far more trials. Relative frequency approaches the theoretical probability as the number of trials increases, so an estimate from drops is far more reliable than one from only . Mia's small sample can swing a long way from the true value by chance.
Part (c) - expected point-up landings in drops. Use Sam's estimate as the probability and multiply by the number of new drops:
so about , which to the nearest whole number is point-up landings. (Check: is close to , and , so an answer just above is sensible.)
Related dot points
- Describe the likelihood of an event using the language of chance and the probability scale from 0 to 1, distinguishing fair from biased and equally likely outcomes
A focused answer to the HSC Maths Standard 2 dot point on the language of probability. The likelihood scale from impossible to certain, describing chance in words and as a number between 0 and 1, even chance, likely and unlikely, the meaning of fair versus biased, and equally likely outcomes, with worked Australian examples.
- List the sample space of equally likely outcomes and calculate the theoretical probability of an event using , the number of favourable outcomes divided by the total number of outcomes
A focused answer to the HSC Maths Standard 2 dot point on theoretical probability. Listing a sample space systematically, equally likely outcomes, the formula P(E) = n(E)/n(S), and finding the probability of single and described compound events on dice and cards, with worked Australian examples.
- Recognise that probabilities of events range from 0 to 1, identify the complement of an event and use the relationship that the probability of an event and its complement sum to 1, so the probability of 'not E' equals 1 minus the probability of E
A focused answer to the HSC Maths Standard 2 dot point on the range of probabilities and complementary events. Why every probability sits between 0 and 1, what the complement of an event is, the rule that an event and its complement add to 1 so the probability of not E is 1 minus the probability of E, and the at-least-one short cut, with worked Australian examples.
- Calculate the expected frequency of an event from the probability of the event and the number of trials, using expected frequency = P(E) x number of trials
A focused answer to the HSC Maths Standard 2 dot point on expected frequency. The rule expected frequency = P(E) times the number of trials, predicting how many times an event should happen over many trials, the expected-versus-observed difference, and working backwards to find the number of trials from an expected count, with worked Australian examples.