The balance of payments: WACE Year 12 Economics Unit 3
“Explain the structure of the balance of payments, the current and capital and financial accounts, and the causes and consequences of current account deficits and surpluses”
The balance of payments records all transactions between Australia and the rest of the world, split into the current account (trade, income, transfers) and the capital and financial account (investment flows). The two must offset each other. A current account deficit is financed by a net inflow on the financial account, building up foreign liabilities.
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What this dot point is asking
SCSA wants you to explain the structure of the balance of payments, define each component, show why the accounts net to zero, and analyse the causes and consequences of a current account deficit (CAD). Expect a balance of payments table as stimulus plus a short or extended response.
The two accounts
The balance of payments (BOP) is the record, compiled quarterly by the ABS, of all economic transactions between Australian residents and the rest of the world over a period.
The current account
The current account records non-capital flows. It has three parts:
- Balance on goods and services (BOGS): exports minus imports of goods and services. A surplus means Australia exports more than it imports.
- Primary income: income flows on investments and labour, mainly interest and dividends paid to and received from abroad. Australia runs a large primary income deficit because it has historically been a net borrower, so it pays more interest and dividends out than it receives.
- Secondary income: transfers with no good or service in return (foreign aid, gifts, some pensions). Usually small.
The capital and financial account
This account records transactions in assets and liabilities:
- Capital account: small; conditional transfers of capital and non-produced, non-financial assets.
- Financial account: the large component, recording flows of direct investment, portfolio investment (shares and bonds), and other investment. A net inflow means foreigners are buying more Australian assets than Australians are buying abroad.
Why the accounts balance
Under a floating exchange rate, the current account and the capital and financial account are equal and opposite (ignoring the small statistical discrepancy). A current account deficit must be financed by an equal net surplus (inflow) on the capital and financial account. Written as an identity: current account balance plus capital and financial account balance equals zero.
The logic: if Australia spends more on imports, income and transfers than it earns (a CAD), it must fund the gap by either borrowing from abroad or selling assets to foreigners, which is recorded as a net inflow on the financial account.
Suppose in one year Australia records a balance on goods and services of billion, a primary income balance of billion, and a secondary income balance of billion. The current account balance is billion, a current account deficit of $16 billion. Because the accounts must net to zero, the capital and financial account must show a net inflow of billion to finance it. Notice that even with a healthy trade surplus of $15 billion, the large primary income deficit (interest and dividends paid on past foreign borrowing) pushes the overall current account into deficit. This is the structural pattern behind much of Australia's historical current account position.
Causes of a current account deficit
- Strong domestic spending on imports relative to export earnings.
- A high level of foreign liabilities generating large net primary income outflows (interest and dividends).
- Commodity price movements: falling export prices worsen the BOGS; rising prices improve it.
- Exchange rate movements: a higher AUD makes exports dearer and imports cheaper, worsening BOGS, though the J-curve means timing matters.
- The savings-investment gap: if national investment exceeds national saving, the shortfall is funded from abroad, producing a CAD.
Australia ran persistent current account deficits for decades, but high iron ore, coal and LNG prices produced a run of current account surpluses from 2019 into the early 2020s, the first sustained surpluses in around 45 years. As commodity prices eased, the balance moved back toward small deficits. The structural driver remains the large primary income deficit from Australia's net foreign liability position.
Consequences of a persistent CAD
- Rising net foreign liabilities (the cumulative stock of foreign debt plus foreign equity), which must be serviced through future income outflows.
- The debt-servicing burden: larger primary income deficits can entrench the CAD.
- Sustainability question: a CAD driven by productive investment that lifts future export capacity is more sustainable than one funding consumption.
- Exchange rate and confidence risk: very large deficits can pressure the dollar and raise the risk premium on Australian borrowing, though a floating dollar acts as a shock absorber.
The Pitchford thesis argues that a CAD arising from private sector borrowing and lending decisions is not a policy problem, because private agents bear their own risks. This view underpinned the relaxed official attitude to Australia's CAD from the 1990s.
A net financial account inflow that finances a CAD is not automatically harmful. Foreign capital can fund productive investment that Australia could not finance from domestic saving alone. Evaluate sustainability by asking whether the borrowing funds investment that raises future income, not simply by the size of the deficit.
Exam-style questions
Questions in the style of SCSA exam questions on this dot point, each with a worked answer. They are written by ExamExplained unless tagged "Past paper"; the year shows the paper a question is modelled on.
WACE 2022-style10 marksExplain the structure of the balance of payments and analyse the causes and consequences of a persistent current account deficit for the Australian economy.Show worked answer →
A 10 mark response needs the structure, the causes, and the consequences.
Structure. The balance of payments splits into the current account (balance on goods and services, primary income, secondary income) and the capital and financial account (mainly investment flows). Under a float the two are equal and opposite: a current account deficit is financed by a net financial-account inflow.
Causes. Strong domestic spending on imports relative to export earnings; a large primary income deficit from servicing foreign liabilities; falling commodity export prices; a higher exchange rate; and a savings-investment gap where national investment exceeds national saving.
Consequences. Rising net foreign liabilities that must be serviced through future income outflows; a debt-servicing burden that can entrench the deficit; an exchange-rate or confidence risk if the deficit is very large; but the deficit is more sustainable if it funds productive investment that raises future export capacity (the Pitchford thesis view of private borrowing).
Markers reward the two-account structure, the savings-investment framing, and a sustainability judgement rather than treating any deficit as automatically bad.
WACE 2023-style6 marksExplain why a current account deficit must be matched by a net inflow on the capital and financial account.Show worked answer →
A 6 mark response needs the identity and the funding logic.
Identity. Ignoring the small statistical discrepancy, the current account balance plus the capital and financial account balance equals zero, so the two are equal and opposite under a floating exchange rate.
Funding logic. If Australia spends more on imports, income and transfers than it earns abroad (a current account deficit), it must pay for the gap. It does this by either borrowing from foreigners or selling assets to them, both of which are recorded as a net inflow on the financial account. The deficit is, by definition, financed by that inflow.
Markers reward the accounting identity stated correctly and the explanation that the gap must be funded by foreign borrowing or asset sales.