Consequences, stability and change in the Indo-Pacific: VCE Politics Unit 4

What this dot point is asking

Two key knowledge items: what at least two of the state's interests mean for other regional actors, and how far the state's actions and their results produce stability or change across the Indo-Pacific.

The answer

Consequences for other actors

For each of two interests, ask: who is affected, how, and how did they respond?

• Security interests and neighbours. Actions that increase one state's security can reduce others' (a security dilemma). Japan's defence build up and defence ties with the Philippines and Australia can be seen as deterrence by partners but as encirclement by China.
• Economic interests and trading partners. Tariffs, export controls and trade agreements change costs for partners, who may retaliate, negotiate or shift markets. India's experience with United States tariffs in 2025 and 2026 is one example.
• Relationship interests and third states. Deeper alliances can reassure partners and alarm rivals. Australia's AUKUS partnership with the United States and the United Kingdom prompted China to criticise it as destabilising, while other states raised concerns about nuclear non-proliferation.
• Standing interests and the regional order. A state's claim to leadership affects how smaller states see their own options.

Stability and change

• Stability means that the situation is predictable and risk of conflict is managed (for example through deterrence, treaties, dialogue or shared institutions).
• Change means a shift in the balance of power, alignments or norms (for example new alliances, new capabilities or a changed status quo).

A state's actions can produce both. Examples to test: the Pukpuk Treaty (October 2025) and the Australia-Indonesia Treaty on Common Security (February 2026) can be argued to increase stability among partners but also to change regional alignments. China's actions in the South China Sea may stabilise its control over features while destabilising relations with claimants such as the Philippines.

Worked example

Question. Discuss the extent to which your selected state has contributed to stability or change in the region.

Model answer outline. Choose two interests. For each, explain the state's action, how another actor responded, and whether the result increased stability, change or both. Compare the two and conclude with an overall judgement of extent (for example "mainly change, because...").

Try this

Q1

Define the security dilemma in one sentence. Model answer: Steps one state takes to increase its security make others feel less secure and respond, which can reduce overall security.

Q2

Give one consequence of a state's economic interests for another actor. Model answer: Tariffs raise costs for exporters in the partner state, which may respond with counter-measures or by seeking other markets.

Q3

Explain how one action could produce both stability and change. Model answer: A new defence treaty may reassure partners (stability) while shifting alignments and prompting a rival to respond (change).