Mass movement of people as a humanitarian crisis: VCE Politics Unit 3

What this dot point is asking

The mass movement of people, within and across borders, is one of the three crises from which your school will choose. The design lists causes such as armed conflict over sovereignty and territory, discrimination (race, gender, social group, nationality, culture) and economic pressures such as lost livelihoods or a changing environment. You must analyse actors' perspectives and the challenge of balancing national interests with humanitarian obligations.

The answer

Scale, with dates

UNHCR's Global Trends report, published in June 2026, found 117.8 million people forcibly displaced at the end of 2025, down from 123.2 million a year earlier. This was the first fall in a decade, driven partly by returns and by refugees gaining citizenship in host countries. The 117.8 million includes 41.6 million refugees (counting those in refugee-like situations and Palestine refugees), 9 million asylum-seekers and 68.7 million people displaced inside their own countries. Nearly 4.4 million refugees returned during 2025.

Remember the design covers movement both within and across borders. Internally displaced people have no refugee status, so they rely on their own state, which may be the cause of their displacement.

Short-term causes

• Armed conflict. Sudan, Ukraine, Gaza, Myanmar and others have all produced mass displacement. Sudan alone had roughly 9 million internally displaced people in 2026, according to UN humanitarian office (OCHA) figures (check the latest update).
• Discrimination and persecution. The 2017 military campaign against the Rohingya forced more than 700,000 people to Bangladesh.
• Economic and environmental pressures. Loss of livelihoods and climate-related disasters, which push people to move even when they do not meet the legal definition of a refugee.

Law and processes

• The 1951 Refugee Convention and its 1967 Protocol define refugees and set the principle of non-refoulement (a state must not send a refugee back to a place where they face danger).
• The 2018 Global Compact on Refugees and the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration are non-binding frameworks for responsibility sharing and cooperation.
• UNHCR coordinates protection and aid. The International Organization for Migration supports migrants.
• Regional responses vary. After the 2022 invasion the European Union activated its temporary protection scheme so that Ukrainians could live and work in member states without lengthy asylum procedures. By contrast, Bangladesh hosts more than 1 million Rohingya in camps under pressure and without a durable solution.

Perspectives

Host states emphasise security, social cohesion and costs; origin states may deny the problem or resist return; refugees and NGOs stress rights and safety; powerful states weigh strategic interests. Australia's policies of offshore processing and boat turn-backs are an example of prioritising border security, defended by governments and criticised by human rights groups.

Challenges and stability or change

Unequal burden sharing (most refugees are hosted in countries neighbouring the crisis), funding shortfalls, the absence of a binding mechanism, political backlash in host states, and long-running conflicts that prevent return. Mass movement can stabilise (when states open pathways and share responsibility) or destabilise (when it strains host communities or fuels political polarisation).

Worked example

Question. Explain how national interests can conflict with humanitarian obligations in a crisis of mass movement.

Model answer. States have a humanitarian obligation under the Refugee Convention not to return people to danger, but they also have interests in border security and social cohesion. A government may support the principle yet adopt deterrence policies, such as offshore processing, arguing that these protect order and prevent dangerous journeys. Critics argue that such policies breach the spirit of non-refoulement. The conflict arises because the same state is balancing its duty to people in need against the political and economic demands of its own citizens.

Try this

Q1

What is the difference between a refugee and an internally displaced person? Model answer: A refugee has crossed an international border and has legal protection under international law; an internally displaced person remains in their own country.

Q2

Explain why burden sharing is a challenge. Model answer: Most refugees are hosted by neighbouring states, often with fewer resources, and no binding mechanism forces wealthier states to take a fair share.

Q3

Evaluate the effectiveness of one response to a mass movement of people. Model answer: For example, the EU's temporary protection for Ukrainians gave rapid access to work and services, but it depended on EU political will and has not been matched for other groups.