Analyse the rise of transnational terrorism and the post-9/11 global response, including the September 11 attacks (2001), the war in Afghanistan (2001-2021), the Iraq War (2003), and the rise of Islamic State (2014-2019)

What this dot point is asking

VCAA wants you to analyse the role of transnational terrorism in 21st-century global politics, the post-9/11 US-led response, and the longer-term consequences.

The September 11 attacks (2001)

Al-Qaeda

Founded by Osama bin Laden in 1988. Based in Afghanistan under Taliban protection from 1996.

The attacks (11 September 2001)

Nineteen al-Qaeda operatives hijacked four passenger aircraft. American Airlines Flight 11 and United Flight 175 flew into the North and South towers of the World Trade Centre in New York; American Flight 77 into the Pentagon; United Flight 93 crashed in Pennsylvania after passenger revolt.

Casualties

$2\,977$ killed (in addition to the $19$ hijackers). The bloodiest foreign attack on US soil since Pearl Harbor.

Bush response

Declared a "War on Terror" (20 September 2001). NATO invoked Article 5 (collective defence) for the first time.

Afghanistan War (2001-2021)

US invasion (October 2001)

Operation Enduring Freedom. Taliban government collapsed within weeks. Hamid Karzai installed as interim leader.

Twenty years of insurgency

Taliban regrouped after 2003. Insurgency intensified. Civilian casualties high. US troop surge under Obama (2009).

Death of bin Laden

US Navy SEAL raid in Abbottabad, Pakistan (2 May 2011).

Withdrawal

Trump-era Doha Agreement with Taliban (February 2020). Biden completed withdrawal (August 2021); Taliban retook Kabul within days. Twenty years; $2\,461$ US dead; estimated $176\,000$ Afghan deaths.

Australian involvement

$39$ Australians killed; about $26\,000$ deployed.

Iraq War (2003-2011)

Justification

Bush administration alleged Iraqi WMD and links to al-Qaeda. Neither claim was substantiated.

Invasion (20 March 2003)

"Coalition of the willing" including the US, UK and Australia. Baghdad fell within three weeks.

Occupation and insurgency

L. Paul Bremer's de-Baathification and dissolution of the Iraqi army (May 2003) created conditions for insurgency. Sunni, Shia and sectarian civil war from 2006.

Abu Ghraib (2004)

Photographs of US military personnel abusing Iraqi prisoners exposed publicly. Severe damage to US moral standing.

Iraqi casualties

Estimates range from $150\,000$ to over $1$ million Iraqi deaths.

Withdrawal

US combat operations formally ended August 2010; final withdrawal December 2011.

Rise and fall of Islamic State (2014-2019)

ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) emerged from disaffected former Iraqi Baathists and al-Qaeda affiliates. Exploited the Syrian civil war (from 2011) and Iraqi sectarian tensions.

Caliphate declared (June 2014). Controlled large parts of Iraq and Syria including Mosul and Raqqa. Sophisticated propaganda; terrorist attacks in Europe (Paris November 2015, Brussels March 2016, Nice July 2016).

Defeated. US-led coalition with Iraqi Army, Kurdish forces, and Iranian-backed militias. Mosul liberated (July 2017). Raqqa fell (October 2017). Last territory lost (March 2019). Bin Laden's successor as the world's most wanted, Baghdadi, killed (October 2019).

Lasting consequences

Wars cost the US an estimated $5$-$8$ trillion dollars. Civilian deaths in the millions across the Middle East. Refugee flows reshaped European politics.

The "unipolar moment" of unchallenged US dominance after 1991 effectively ended. China's rise (especially after 2008) and Russia's reassertion (Crimea 2014, Ukraine 2022) operated against a US weakened by Middle East engagements.

In one sentence

The September 11 attacks (2001) reshaped global politics by triggering the War on Terror, two protracted US-led wars (Afghanistan 2001-2021, Iraq 2003-2011), the erosion of civil liberties at home and the international rules-based order abroad (Guantanamo, Abu Ghraib), and the long-term destabilisation of the Middle East that produced Islamic State (2014-2019); the unipolar moment of US dominance effectively ended.

Examples in context

Example 1. The Iraq War (2003) as a worked illustration of how the response destabilised the region. Read the invasion as a case study in unintended consequences. It was justified by alleged WMD and al-Qaeda links, neither substantiated; Bremer's de-Baathification and dissolution of the Iraqi army (May 2003) created conditions for insurgency and sectarian civil war, and Abu Ghraib (2004) damaged US moral standing. The example shows the dot point's theme that the post-9/11 response, more than the attacks alone, reshaped global politics, helping create the conditions for Islamic State.

Example 2. The rise and fall of Islamic State (2014-2019) as a study in transnational terrorism exploiting state collapse. Read ISIS as a worked illustration of the link the dot point draws between earlier wars and later terrorism. It emerged from former Iraqi Baathists and al-Qaeda affiliates, exploited the Syrian civil war and Iraqi sectarian tensions, declared a caliphate (June 2014) controlling Mosul and Raqqa, and projected attacks into Europe before a US-led coalition reclaimed its territory by March 2019. The example connects the Iraq War's aftermath to a new phase of transnational terrorism.

Try this

Q1. "The post-9/11 response did more to reshape global politics than the attacks themselves." To what extent do you agree? [10 marks]

• Cue. Thesis: the wars and their consequences were the larger force. Evidence: Afghanistan (2001-2021) and Iraq (2003-2011); civil-liberties erosion (PATRIOT Act, Guantanamo, Abu Ghraib); the rise of Islamic State and the end of the unipolar moment.

Q2. Explain how the Afghanistan War (2001-2021) unfolded. [6 marks]

• Cue. The October 2001 invasion toppled the Taliban; insurgency regrouped after 2003 with an Obama-era surge; bin Laden killed (2011); the Doha Agreement (2020) preceded the 2021 withdrawal and rapid Taliban return.

Q3. Analyse the longer-term consequences of the post-9/11 wars. [6 marks]

• Cue. Trillions of dollars spent and hundreds of thousands killed; refugee flows reshaping European politics; the rules-based order weakened; the unipolar moment ending as China rose and Russia reasserted itself.