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QLDPhilosophy and ReasonQuick questions
Unit 3: Reason and formal logic
Quick questions on Probability and statistical reasoning: QCE Philosophy and Reason
6short Q&A pairs drawn directly from our worked dot-point answer. For full context and worked exam questions, read the parent dot-point page.
What is probability as degree of support?Show answer
Inductive strength is a matter of probability: how likely the conclusion is, given the premises. Probabilities run from 0 (impossible) to 1 (certain). A key distinction is between the prior probability of a claim (before evidence) and its probability conditional on evidence. The probability of A given B, written P(A given B), can differ wildly from P(B given A), and confusing the two is a frequent reasoning error.
What is updating on evidence?Show answer
Good reasoning updates belief in proportion to evidence: start from the base rate, then revise as new evidence arrives, weighing how likely that evidence would be if the claim were true versus if it were false. This is the plain-language core of Bayesian reasoning, named after Thomas Bayes. The lesson for argument analysis: strong evidence is evidence that is much more likely if the conclusion is true than if it is false, and you must always combine it with the prior probability rather than judging the evidence in isolation.
What is the gambler's fallacy?Show answer
Independent events do not "remember" past results; a fair coin is never "due" heads.
What is q1?Show answer
Explain the base-rate fallacy using a rare-disease test example. [4 marks]
What is q2?Show answer
Why is "Linda is a bank teller and a feminist" never more probable than "Linda is a bank teller"? [2 marks]
What is q3?Show answer
Explain the gambler's fallacy. [2 marks]
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