← Unit 2: Change and conflict (The changing world order, 1945 onwards)
How did the Cold War begin?
Analyse the origins of the Cold War 1945-1949, including the Yalta and Potsdam conferences, the division of Germany, the Truman Doctrine and Marshall Plan (1947-1948), the Berlin Blockade (1948-1949), and the formation of NATO (1949)
A focused answer to the VCE Modern History Unit 2 key knowledge point on the origins of the Cold War. Yalta and Potsdam, division of Germany, Iron Curtain speech (1946), Truman Doctrine (March 1947), Marshall Plan (June 1947), Berlin Blockade and Airlift (1948-1949), and the formation of NATO (April 1949).
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What this dot point is asking
VCAA wants you to analyse the origins of the Cold War in the immediate post-WWII period, identify the key turning points (1945-1949), and engage with the historiographical debate over responsibility.
Yalta and Potsdam (February and July-August 1945)
Yalta (February 1945). Roosevelt, Churchill, Stalin. Agreed on occupation zones in Germany, Soviet entry into the war against Japan, the establishment of the UN, and "free and unfettered" elections in Eastern Europe (an ambiguous commitment Stalin later disregarded).
Potsdam (July-August 1945). Truman (replacing the deceased Roosevelt), Churchill (then Attlee mid-conference after British election), Stalin. Confirmed German occupation; reparations; trial of Nazi war criminals (Nuremberg, November 1945 - October 1946).
Eastern European communisation (1945-1948)
Soviet-occupied countries became communist by 1948: Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Czechoslovakia (after the February 1948 coup). Yugoslavia under Tito became communist but independently (broke with Stalin 1948).
Containment doctrine
Kennan's Long Telegram (February 1946) and "Sources of Soviet Conduct" (Foreign Affairs, July 1947). George F. Kennan argued the USSR was expansionist by ideology and should be "contained" at every point.
Churchill's Iron Curtain speech (Fulton, Missouri, March 1946). "From Stettin in the Baltic to Trieste in the Adriatic, an iron curtain has descended across the continent." Made the division explicit to public opinion.
Truman Doctrine and Marshall Plan (1947)
Truman Doctrine (12 March 1947). Initially million in aid for Greece (fighting communist insurgency) and Turkey (Soviet pressure on the Straits). Rapidly extended to a global anti-communist commitment.
Marshall Plan (5 June 1947 announcement; in force from April 1948). billion in economic aid for Western Europe. Stalin forbade Eastern bloc states from accepting; Czechoslovakia's interest in joining was a key precipitating factor in the February 1948 coup.
Berlin Blockade and Airlift (1948-1949)
The Allied zones of Germany merged to form Bizonia (January 1947) then Trizonia. New currency (Deutsche Mark) introduced in Western zones June 1948.
Soviet blockade (24 June 1948 - 12 May 1949). USSR closed all road, rail and canal access to West Berlin.
Allied airlift (June 1948 - September 1949). flights delivered million tonnes of supplies to West Berlin. Stalin lifted the blockade in May 1949 without conditions.
Institutional consolidation (1949)
NATO formed (4 April 1949). Twelve initial members. Article 5: an attack on one is an attack on all.
Federal Republic of Germany (May 1949). German Democratic Republic (October 1949). Two German states.
Soviet atomic bomb (29 August 1949). Ended the US nuclear monopoly.
People's Republic of China (1 October 1949). Mao Zedong's communists won the Chinese Civil War. The Cold War became global.
Historiography
Orthodox (1940s-1950s, e.g. Herbert Feis 1957): Soviet aggression caused the Cold War.
Revisionist (William Appleman Williams 1959): US economic expansionism and atomic monopoly drove the conflict.
Post-revisionist (John Lewis Gaddis, We Now Know, 1997): both sides bear responsibility, but Stalin's character and Soviet ideology were the primary drivers.
Cultural Cold War (Frances Stonor Saunders, Who Paid the Piper?, 1999): the contest extended to literature, film, science.
In one sentence
The Cold War emerged between 1945 and 1949 through the Soviet communisation of Eastern Europe, the American containment doctrine (Truman Doctrine March 1947, Marshall Plan June 1947), the Berlin Blockade and Airlift (1948-1949), and the institutional consolidation of NATO (April 1949), the two Germanies (1949) and the Soviet atomic bomb (August 1949); responsibility is shared between Soviet expansion and American response.
Past exam questions, worked
Real questions from past VCAA papers on this dot point, with our answer explainer.
Year 11 SACWho was most responsible for the origins of the Cold War: the US, the USSR, or neither?Show worked answer →
A Year 11 response.
Thesis. Responsibility for the Cold War was shared: Soviet expansion in Eastern Europe and the consolidation of the Soviet bloc provoked Western defensive responses, but American economic and ideological commitments to a global liberal-capitalist order also drove the confrontation; the post-revisionist consensus (Gaddis) identifies Stalin's character and Soviet ideology as the principal source, with US policy reacting and over-reacting.
Body 1: Soviet actions. Stalin's installation of communist regimes in Poland (1945-1947), Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Czechoslovakia (1948 coup). Annexation of the Baltic states. Refusal to allow Eastern bloc participation in Marshall Aid. Comintern reactivated as Cominform (1947).
Body 2: American actions. Truman Doctrine (March 1947) committed the US to containing communism globally. Marshall Plan (June 1947) integrated Western Europe into the dollar economy. Anti-communist domestic politics shaped foreign policy (Loyalty Order 1947, House Un-American Activities Committee).
Body 3: Mutual mistrust. Yalta and Potsdam left ambiguous agreements that each side interpreted to favour its interests. The atomic bomb (Hiroshima August 1945, Soviet test 1949) added existential stakes. The Berlin Blockade (1948-1949) and NATO (April 1949) institutionalised the division.
Conclusion. Responsibility was shared but not equal. Soviet expansion in Eastern Europe drove the initial confrontation; American responses (Truman Doctrine, NATO) institutionalised the global division. Historians like John Lewis Gaddis (We Now Know, 1997) emphasise Stalin's personality; revisionists like William Appleman Williams (The Tragedy of American Diplomacy, 1959) emphasise US economic expansion.
Markers reward dated events, named historians, and the explicit responsibility argument.
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