The role of labour market reforms and immigration in influencing aggregate supply and the achievement of the domestic macroeconomic goals, including wages policy, enterprise bargaining, the Fair Work Commission, the National Employment Standards, and the size and composition of the migration program

What this dot point is asking

VCAA wants you to explain wage determination in Australia, identify the role of the Fair Work Commission and the National Employment Standards, describe the migration program, and analyse the macroeconomic effects with recent examples. Expect a 6 to 10 mark extended response.

The answer

Why labour market policy matters for AS

Labour is the largest input to production. Labour market settings affect:

• The NAIRU (lower NAIRU = more sustainable employment).
• Wage growth (must match productivity to avoid inflation).
• Productivity (flexible work arrangements support efficient deployment).
• Participation (parental leave, childcare, flexibility raise participation).

Labour market reform is an AS policy because it lifts the economy's productive capacity.

Wage determination in Australia

The Fair Work Act 2009 set up three streams of wage-setting:

1. National Minimum Wage and modern awards.

• Set by the Fair Work Commission each July.
• National minimum wage 2024-25: $24.10 per hour ($914 per 38-hour week).
• 122 modern awards covering minimum wages, hours and conditions for each industry and occupation.
• Cover around 25 percent of employees (mostly retail, hospitality, personal services).

2. Enterprise agreements (EBAs).

• Collectively negotiated agreements between an employer and its workforce (often through a union).
• Approved by the Fair Work Commission against the Better Off Overall Test (BOOT).
• Cover around 35 percent of employees (mostly manufacturing, mining, healthcare, public sector).
• Average wage growth in EBAs has been around 4 percent year-on-year through 2024.

3. Individual common-law contracts.

• Above-award arrangements between employer and individual employee.
• Cover around 40 percent of employees (mostly professional, managerial, ICT).

The Fair Work Commission

The FWC is the national workplace relations tribunal. Functions:

• Annual wage review (sets the national minimum wage and award minimums).
• Modern award maintenance.
• Enterprise agreement approval against the BOOT.
• Unfair dismissal jurisdiction.
• Industrial action authorisation.
• Resolution of disputes in low-paid sectors.

The National Employment Standards

Eleven minimum entitlements that apply to all employees:

1. Maximum 38-hour week plus reasonable additional hours.
2. Annual leave (4 weeks paid).
3. Personal/carer's leave (10 days paid).
4. Compassionate leave (2 days per occasion).
5. Family and domestic violence leave (10 days paid, from 2023).
6. Long service leave (state-based).
7. Public holidays.
8. Notice of termination and redundancy pay.
9. Fair Work Information Statement.
10. Parental leave: 12 months unpaid, plus government-funded Paid Parental Leave (20 weeks in 2024, rising to 26 weeks by 2026).
11. Right to request flexible working arrangements.

Awards and EBAs cannot reduce these minimums.

Recent labour market reforms

Secure Jobs, Better Pay Act 2022.

• Multi-employer bargaining (especially in feminised low-wage sectors).
• Single interest bargaining streams.
• Prohibition on pay secrecy clauses.
• Ban on "zombie agreements" (pre-2009 individual agreements).

Closing Loopholes Act 2024.

• Right to disconnect outside working hours.
• Casual employment redefined with conversion rights.
• Gig economy "employee-like" workers brought into FWC jurisdiction.
• Same Job, Same Pay for labour hire.
• Wage theft criminalised from 1 January 2025.

Paid Parental Leave expansion.

• 20 weeks at the minimum wage from 1 July 2024.
• 26 weeks by 1 July 2026.
• Super contributions on PPL from 1 July 2025.

Wage growth and inflation

The Wage Price Index (ABS, cat. no. 6345.0) measures wage changes controlling for workforce composition.

Wage growth lifted from below 2 percent (2014-2020) to around 4 percent (2023-24) as the labour market tightened. Real wages fell in 2022 and 2023 (CPI exceeded WPI) but are now rising.

For inflation to remain at the 2 to 3 percent target, unit labour cost growth (wages minus productivity) must stay around 3 percent. With productivity growth of 0.5 percent, sustainable WPI growth is 3.5 percent. Current WPI growth of 4 percent is above this threshold, partly explaining the RBA's persistent caution on inflation.

The migration program

Permanent migration program.

• Around 185,000 places per year in 2024-25.
• Skilled stream around 70 percent (skilled independent, employer-sponsored, business and investor).
• Family stream around 25 percent.
• Other (refugees, special) around 5 percent.

Temporary migration.

• Subclass 482 (Temporary Skill Shortage). The flagship business-sponsored visa.
• Subclass 500 (Student). Around 750,000 international students.
• Subclass 417/462 (Working Holiday Maker). Around 200,000.
• Subclass 408 (Activity). Smaller categories.

Net overseas migration was around 500,000 in 2023-24, the highest in modern records. This had three effects:

1. Eased labour market tightness, contributing to wage growth moderation.
2. Lifted aggregate demand (housing, retail, services).
3. Increased pressure on housing and infrastructure.

The 2024 Migration Strategy

The Albanese government published a new Migration Strategy in December 2023, implemented through 2024-25. Key features:

• Cap on international student commencements at some universities and providers.
• New skilled "core skills" pathway (replacing the Skilled Independent stream).
• Tighter integrity in the Temporary Skill Shortage visa.
• Streamlined permanent residence pathways for skilled migrants.

The strategy aims to reduce net overseas migration toward around 250,000 by 2026-27 (Treasury Budget 2024-25 forecast), easing pressure on housing while maintaining the skilled migration intake.

Effects on the macroeconomic goals

Strong and sustainable growth.

• Skills development raises productivity.
• Migration grows the labour force.
• Both raise potential output.

Full employment.

• Strong labour market protections (FWC, NES) raise the minimum wage floor.
• Migration affects the NAIRU: skilled migration eases bottlenecks; unskilled migration may raise unemployment at the margin.
• The 2022 inquiry concluded migration had little long-run effect on unemployment.

Low and stable inflation.

• Wage growth above productivity raises unit labour costs and inflation.
• Migration eases labour shortages, moderating wage pressure.
• The 2022-24 migration surge contributed to bringing wage growth back to sustainable levels.

Equity.

• Minimum wage and award framework compresses the wage distribution.
• Gender pay gap fell from around 17 percent (2014) to 13 percent (WGEA 2024).
• Family Tax Benefit, Paid Parental Leave and childcare subsidies support working families.

Strengths and weaknesses

Strengths.

1. Long-run productivity gains from skills and migration.
2. Distributional protections from awards and NES.
3. Flexibility through EBAs at the firm level.

Weaknesses.

1. Award complexity (122 modern awards, SME compliance costs).
2. Migration pressure on housing and infrastructure (the 2024 strategy is the response).
3. Minimum wage may raise unemployment among low-skilled and young workers at the margin.
4. EBAs can lock in inflexible work practices.

Common VCE traps

Conflating labour market policy with monetary policy

Both affect wages, but labour market policy is supply-side; monetary policy is demand-side.

Treating migration as purely a labour supply issue

Migration also affects AD (housing, retail) and infrastructure pressure.

Forgetting the productivity link

Sustainable wage growth requires productivity growth. Markers reward responses that name unit labour costs explicitly.

Quoting only the national minimum wage without context

Specify what percentage of workers it covers and how it interacts with awards and EBAs.